Dick Morris: GOP Leads in 7 Senate Races; McConnell in Trouble

Republican Senate candidates now lead their rivals in seven contests, including three involving Democratic incumbents. Republicans need to win six seats to gain control of the Senate.

For an eighth seat, the Republican is tied with a Democratic incumbent. And, in a ninth contest, the GOP candidate trails the Democratic incumbent by only two points.

In the following seven races — all in seats now held by Democrats — the Republican has a lead.

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(* means Republican faces significant primary)

Republicans lead in seven

Michigan

Terri Lynn Land (R) 40
Gary Peters (D) 38

(Open seat; Carl Levin retired; amazing run for a Republican in deeply blue state)

North Carolina

Thom Tillis (R) 46*
Kay Hagan (D) 45

(Tillis leads in tough primary; Hagan well under 50% of the vote)

Alaska

Mead Treadwell (R) 47*
Mark Begich (D) 43

(Treadwell faces tough primary but Begish is way behind and further under 50 percent)

Montana

Steve Daines (R) 51
John Walsh (D) 37

(Open seat; it's over)

Louisiana

Bill Cassidy (R) 46
Mary Landrieu (D) 42

(Landrieu way under 50 percent)

South Dakota

Mike Rounds (R) 51
Rick Weiland (D) 31

(Open seat; it's over)

West Virginia

Shelley Moore Capito (R) 49
Natalie Tennant (D) 35

(Open seat; it's over)

Republican tied in one

Arkansas

Tom Cotton (R) 46
Mark Pryor (D) 46

(Pryor is under 50 percent)

Republican close in three

Iowa

Mark Jacobs (R) 38*
Bruce Braley (D) 41

(Open seat; Jacobs still faces tough primary, but possible pickup)

Colorado

Cory Gardner (R) 40
Mark Udall (D) 42

(Udall way under 50 percent)

Minnesota

Julianne Ortman (R) 41*
Al Franken (D) 44

(Franken way under 50 percent)

One possible Democrat takeaway

Kentucky

Mitch McConnell (R) 43
Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42

(McConnell way under 50 percent)

So, with eleven Democratic seats leaning Republican and only one Republican seat leaning Democrat, the makings of a huge Republican sweep seem to be taking shape.

It is also worth following are Oregon, where Democrat Jeff Merkley has only 46% of the vote against his nearest rival, Jason Conger,  and New Hampshire, where Jeanne Shaheen manages only 50 percent of the vote against former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown’s 38.

The only other possible Democratic takeaway is in Georgia, but Republican front runner (in a tough primary) David Perdue leads the Democrat Michelle Nunn by 38-33.

So, at the moment, a reversal of the 55-45 Democratic majority to make it a 55-45 Republican majority seems possible.

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