Obamacare may reportedly miss its enrollment mark next year by at least 11 million.
According to the Washington Times, the Department of Health and Human Services reports that as of June, 9.9 million Americans bought coverage through the federal HealthCare.gov portal and a handful of state-run exchanges — ahead of the Obama administration estimates for 2015.
But that number's less than the 21 million the Congressional Budget Office
projected for 2016.
"Given where things stand, the ramp-up of enrollment may be slower than initially anticipated," Elizabeth Carpenter, a vice president at Avalere Health consultants tells the Times.
Open enrollment for the third go-around of Obamacare’s exchanges begins Nov. 1; those without coverage face a tax that has gone from $95 or 1 percent of income above the filing threshold in the program's first year to $695 or 2.5 percent of income next year, the Times notes.
"The substantial increase in penalties under the individual mandate next year is a big wild card," Larry Levitt, a senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation, tells the Times. "We’re in unchartered territory here about how effective these bigger penalties will be in nudging people to get insured."
According to Americans for Tax Reform, between the end of March and the end of June, 29 states plus the District of Columbia lost Obamacare enrollees, for a total net loss of 238,119 enrollees in the three-month period.
States that lost the most enrollees include Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, New Jersey, Indiana, and Arizona. Twenty states posted increased enrollment numbers, including Massachusetts and California.
"It all comes down to an economy of scale that just isn't working," ATR tax policy director Ryan Ellis says in a statement.
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