Nate Silver: Clinton Would Have Won Had It Not Been For Comey Email Probe

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton would "almost certainly" have won the election if it had been held before FBI Director James Comey announced the reviewing of the agency's investigation into her private emails, according to pollster Nate Silver.
Silver, who is editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, made the claim in a series of tweets on Sunday.

I'll put it like this: Clinton would almost certainly be President-elect if the election had been held on Oct. 27 (day before Comey letter).

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 11, 2016

In another tweet, Silver displayed a graph that showed that late-deciding voters overwhelmingly supported Republican candidate Donald Trump in three key states. Fifty-nine percent of these late-deciding voters in Wisconsin wound up supporting Trump, compared to 30 percent who backed Clinton, while in Pennsylvania the ratio was 54 percent to 37 percent for Trump and in Michigan 50 percent to 39 percent in favor of the real estate mogul.

There's more evidence, too: Late-deciding voters broke strongly against Clinton in swing states, enough to cost her MI/WI/PA. pic.twitter.com/8r801ahDQO

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 11, 2016

Like almost all other pollsters, Silver was incorrect in predicting the outcome, but a few days before the election, Silver did write in FiveThirtyEight that Clinton’s chances of winning the presidency had dropped to 65 percent from an 81 percent probability of capturing the White House just before Comey made his announcement about reviewing the email case.

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