The current slowdown in the pace of warming of the Earth's surface could continue for another five years, according to a new paper released Monday.
"We looked at the statistics of hypothetical pauses driven solely by natural variability. It’s possible that the current slowdown has other causes as well. It’s important to remember that those other causes
— like aerosols from volcanic eruptions or industry
— could lengthen a pause in global warming, so we shouldn’t be too surprised if the pause continues," said co-author Doug McNeall,
in a press release from Britain's University of Exeter.
The Exeter mathematics department professors sought to answer the question of whether the current slowdown in the pace of global warming could be a consequence of natural variability. There is no consensus among scientists concerning the reason, but the scientists concluded that the recent slowdown is within the range of possible internal variations, and that it could last beyond 15 years.
Since 2000, the temperature at the Earth's surface has not warmed as quickly as it has in previous decades, despite the fact greenhouse gas emissions have risen at a faster pace,
according to findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
To reach their conclusion, the researchers utilized climate models from various international centers to examine the impact of natural variability on future temperatures and found a 28 percent chance that natural temperature variability might result in a five-year "hiatus" in warming.
When models using real-world temperatures in the Pacific, the likelihood of that hiatus increased 30 percent. They did note that the odds of a hiatus for 10 years was just 10 percent, and even lower (1 percent) for a hiatus of 20 years.
Exeter mathematics professor Mat Collins, one of the report's co-authors, says he does not doubt that "the world is warming as a result of human emissions of greenhouse gases," but adds that their findings show "how short-term trends can be quite variable as a result of intrinsic fluctuations in climate" and that more research is needed to "understand these fluctuations and learn how predictable they might be."
According to The Daily Caller, satellite records indicate the pause in warming has lasted for more than 18 years and that while 2014 was declared the warmest year on record, the satellite datasets indicate it is only between the third and the sixth warmest years on record.
Another study released in January by the Beacon Hill Institute at Boston's Suffolk University examined the side of the global warming debate rarely discussed
— what is the cost of the prescriptive measures offered to combat climate change.
In their paper, the analysts estimate that new Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rules on new power plants would cost the United States $8.957 billion in 2030, while another rule to be placed on existing plants would cost $16.026 billion. With additional costs of a mercury emissions rule would cost $21.494 billion, the total of the three regulations would cost $46.477 billion dollars.
The paper also faults the EPA for using in its cost and benefit analysis decades-long amortization schedules for capital expenditures, which masks the full financial burden that will be imposed.
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