John Rossiello
Sunday, Feb. 9, 2003

Bush's reelection was viewed by 20 percent as "very likely," with 40 percent saying that it was at least "somewhat likely," according to a Zogby International survey in late January.

Of the Democrats surveyed, 19 percent backed Rep. Richard Gephardt, D-Mo. with 17 percent now favoring Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn. Among the first-tier candidates, Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., trails with 11 percent.

With Iowa locals still unfamiliar with many of the presidential hopefuls and a year to go before the much ballyhooed state caucuses, three out of four told Zogby that they are somewhat or very likely to change their minds. Twenty percent, however, said they've already decided.

A subsequent Zogby survey of voters nationwide showed that President Bush's job performance stands at 57 percent positive, a decline of six points in the last three weeks. Forty-three percent told Zogby that they disapproved of Bush job performance.

While the polls indicate only minor gains among minority groups, there is no indication so far that Bush is suffering from a gender gap, something that traditionally plagues GOP presidents.

But some of Zogby's other numbers have Bush campaign insiders worried. The poll shows, for instance, that less than a majority of voters - 49 percent - now think that Bush deserves reelection. Forty-one percent said that it is time for someone new.

Is the erosion in Bush's reelect numbers serious enough to overcome the post -9/11 good will he's built up with Americans? Only time will tell.

But the GOP is betting that when voters go to the polls in November 2004, Bush's leadership in the face of national adversity will carry the day.

NewsMax intern John Rossiello attends St. Joseph's by-the-Sea High School in Staten Island, N.Y.

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