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Tags: donald trump | europe | nato | balkans | ukraine | russia
OPINION

Trump's Call for European Strength Finds Answer in Balkans

trump and rutte laugh while seated in front of a nato logo and american and nato flags

President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte speak to media at the start of the second day of the 2025 NATO Summit on June 25 in The Hague, Netherlands. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Ivan Sascha Sheehan By Thursday, 26 June 2025 12:22 PM EDT Current | Bio | Archive

For years, President Trump has repeatedly urged European countries to shoulder their fair share of the collective defense burden and invest more heavily in their militaries.

In a significant development, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has recently called on alliance members to raise defense spending to 5% of their GDP. This figure, previously floated by President Trump, represents a substantial departure from NATO's longstanding 2% target, and reflects a growing recognition that the continent can no longer rely on American taxpayers to underwrite European security.

This shift comes at a moment of acute vulnerability. The war in Ukraine has shattered illusions about long-term peace in Europe.

Simultaneously, Russia's malign influence continues to destabilize the Western Balkans — a region of strategic fragility, vulnerable to external interference. There, Serbia has frequently acted as a Russian proxy, undermining regional stability through intimidation, hybrid warfare and disinformation campaigns.

While Serbia subscribes to "neutrality," its president Aleksandar Vučić was clear that the country does wish to join NATO — even as Belgrade continues its aggression against Kosovo.

To that end, Kosovo, Albania and Croatia have announced a defense alliance with the aim of boosting regional security. This alliance presents a welcome addition to European defense structures and offers a model for Ukraine's future security.

This new partnership directly echoes President Trump's vision of a Europe that takes responsibility for its own defense. It also offers a compelling blueprint for Ukraine's future security — one that doesn't hinge on full NATO membership, but instead leverages regional coalitions of willing, capable and like-minded partners.

The declaration of cooperation between the three countries focuses on "strengthening the defence and security industry, increasing military interoperability through joint training and exercises, countering hybrid threats and strengthening strategic security, and supporting Euro-Atlantic integration."

The intent of strengthening defense capabilities in the region presents an opportunity for NATO-aligned countries such as Kosovo and Ukraine to deepen their European cooperation.

In fact, given that the Ukrainian defense sector has undergone a remarkable transformation, evolving from a modest industry into a significant force in modern warfare since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukrainian defense companies have a substantial role in improving European defense. The recent alliance in the Western Balkans presents a perfect opportunity for Ukrainian companies to assume a leadership role.

In 2022, the Ukrainian defense production capacity expanded from around $1 billion in 2022 to $35 billion in 2025. Additionally, the sector's composition had shifted significantly, with private companies now accounting for about 60% of production, compared to 20% before the war.

This diversification has fostered innovation, particularly in drone technology, where Ukraine has become a global leader. By 2024, over 200 Ukrainian companies were involved in drone production, with many securing state contracts.

The effectiveness of Ukrainian drones was illustrated during the recent Operation Spiderweb that targeted multiple Russian airbases and showcased Ukraine's advanced drone warfare capabilities.

Notably, the drones were equipped with artificial intelligence (AI) systems, enabling them to navigate and strike targets autonomously, even in environments with disrupted communications. This technological sophistication allowed Ukrainian forces to execute precise attacks deep within Russian territory.

The success of Operation Spiderweb underscores Ukraine's growing proficiency in developing and deploying indigenous drone technologies that could strengthen European defense capabilities, primarily in fragile regions such as the Western Balkans.

Helping the Kosovo-Albania-Croatia alliance to enhance their defense capabilities would allow Ukraine to become further embedded in European security infrastructure and contribute to the goal of Euro-Atlantic integration. Additionally, it would bring Ukraine and Kosovo closer together as the current Ukrainian nonrecognition of Kosovo is purely a product of Russian propaganda.

The Kremlin relies on the "Kosovo Precedent" set by Serbia — one that suggests that separatist movements are to be honored, as a way to justify the capture of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Yet, the narrative is a mere misconception as the precedent does not apply to Russia's unlawful use of force.

Additionally, the International Court of Justice has ruled that the declaration of Kosovo's independence "did not violate international law." Should Ukraine and Kosovo engage in closer cooperation, leading to eventual recognition, that would shatter the Kremlin's narrative and would allow for stronger European security.

Finally, if NATO cannot deliver on membership for Ukraine, regional defense coalitions like the one forming in the Balkans may represent a more realistic and Trump-aligned model for European security.

These frameworks don't require unanimous agreement among NATO states and are focused on practical capability building. They align with Trump's emphasis on results, rather than bureaucracy.

Ivan Sascha Sheehan is a professor of Public and International affairs and the associate dean of the College of Public Affairs at the University of Baltimore. Opinions expressed are his own. Follow him on X @ProfSheehan. Read More Here.

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IvanSaschaSheehan
For years, President Trump has repeatedly urged European countries to shoulder their fair share of the collective defense burden and invest more heavily in their militaries.
donald trump, europe, nato, balkans, ukraine, russia
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2025-22-26
Thursday, 26 June 2025 12:22 PM
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