Trump's Dominance in South May Force Debate Rivals to Attack Him

An exclusive Newsmax survey of over 5,700 voters in 12 southern states indicates GOP presidential contender Donald Trump's political strength is now centered in the South rather than the Northeast as initially expected.

Pollsters say Trump's dominance in the southern tier of primary states is surging so much that his Republican opponents may well feel compelled to go on the attack against him in Thursday's debate, to do whatever they can to slow down the Trump juggernaut.

"With a full stage of candidates," predicts Boston University professor and political analyst Tobe Berkovitz, "someone will take a whack at The Donald."

Pollster Matt Towery released the exclusive Newsmax-Southern Political Report Survey conducted by Opinion Savvy late Tuesday. The poll, which has a margin of error of just 1.3 percent, showed Trump dominating the rest of the GOP field in the South with 28 percent of the vote, compared to his national standing of 23 percent of the GOP vote, as reflected in the latest RealClearPolitics poll average.

According to the Newsmax survey, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is running second in the southern tier states, with 18 percent of the vote. Dr. Ben Carson placed third with 10 percent.

None of the remaining 14 GOP contenders managed to reach double digits in the Newsmax-Southern Political Report Survey. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz had 9 percent. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker were tied at 6 percent.

Trump, a life-long New Yorker, was not expected to poll so strongly south of the Mason-Dixon line. But his brash, politically incorrect style and his tough stance on immigration appear to have caught fire among disaffected southern Republicans, who appear to be emerging as the base of his political power.

"He speaks the language of many Republicans in the South, but with a northern accent," said Towery, adding: "He's the winner right now in the first run for the heart and soul of the South."

The results are even more impressive for Trump in specific southern states known to be strongly conservative. In Alabama, for example, he garnered a whopping 38 percent of the vote, compared to 15 percent for Carson and 12 percent for Bush. No other Republican candidate registered in double digits.

In Tennessee, Trump captured 35 percent of the vote -- a remarkable number given that the crowded field numbers 17 candidates. Carson had 15 percent and Bush 12 percent.
In Virginia, generally considered a more moderate state, Trump lead Bush by 28 percent to 15 percent, with Walker garnering 10 percent.

"He's hit on something big time in this region of the country," Towery told Newsmax. "I've not seen anyone have this sort of effect, to be quite blunt, since Ronald Reagan."

Other recent polls confirm the finding that Trump's campaign continues to gain momentum heading into the first GOP primary debate of the 2016 cycle. A Monmouth University national poll released Monday, for example, shows Trump with 26 percent with Jeb Bush at 12. In that poll, Trump's support has doubled since mid-July.

Some strategists advise Trump's rivals to bring his poll numbers back to earth Thursday by hammering on his status as a reality TV star, suggesting he's more of an actor than a politician. GOP contenders may try to goad him into losing his temper or uttering a gaffe. They may also cite Trump's past positions on the hot-button conservative issues, suggesting he's a flip-flopper.

University of Virginia political science expert Dr. Larry Sabato told "Fox News' Fox & Friends" Wednesday that the debate will not be "sweetness and light."

"Tomorrow is an unusual holiday for us political junkies," he said. "We're expecting fireworks."

Trump's two biggest antagonists in the GOP field, South Carolina GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, will not be sharing the debate stage with him because they were unable to attain the required top-10 placement in the polls.

But Berkowitz still expects the other candidates will go after Trump to try to alter the dynamics of a race that, for now, appear to show him pulling away from the field in the early going.

"Maybe a few candidates will try to make their bones with a witty, pre-canned line," Berkowitz tells Newsmax. "But they do so at their own peril. The old saying is, 'Never get in a pissing match with a skunk.' The same holds true for a TV celebrity host. Plus, attacks on Trump just give him more of the spotlight -- as if he needs it."

In recent days Trump has been trying to lower expectations, professing "I've never debated before, I'm not a debater." In a phone interview with Good Morning America, Trump suggested he does not want to spend the night jousting with the nine other candidates, although he acknowledged he'll be the obvious target.

"I don't want to attack anybody and maybe I'll be attacked and maybe not," said Trump. "I'd rather just discuss the issues.

"If I'm attacked I have to, you know, do something back. But I'd like it to be very civil."

One of the more intriguing aspects of the debate will be the strategies of the more established Republican contenders, including Bush, Walker, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Will they try to ignore Trump and just emphasize their own talking points, or, given their slide in the polls, will they go on offense and directly challenge him?

"I'm not going to take anybody," Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker told Fox News Channel's Megyn Kelly on Monday.

Trump has said he just plans to be himself, rather than huddling with debate coaches to prep for the debate. "We have enough of that in Washington with pollsters telling everybody what to say," he said Sunday on Meet the Press.

Towery, an InsiderAdvantage pollster and syndicated national columnist, tells Newsmax "I expect that they will attack Donald Trump more than everyone says they will."

The key for Trump, Towery says, will be to avoid taking positions that cost him support in the South.

"Trump needs to be careful he doesn't say or do something to lose his southern base," says Towery, "because that's where his base is."

The southern states are especially critical in this Republican presidential season, because many of them will hold their primaries before Florida's. In the past, Florida held its primary about 10 days after South Carolina's. Because Florida is a large state with many expensive media markets, it tends to filter out candidates who are less well funded. This cycle, the Sunshine State's primary is not until March 15, and will follow primaries in Arkansas, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Louisiana, Alabama, Idaho, Mississippi, and Michigan.

Towery predicts Florida will again play the role of kingmaker this year, however, in part because it has switched to hosting a "winner-take-all" primary. That means all 99 of its convention delegates will go to whichever candidate wins the most Floridians' votes.

For Florida hometown favorites Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, a loss in their home state could be devastating. Huckabee and Carson maintain residences in Florida as well.

Towery predicts Bush faces the least pressure on Thursday.

"He needs to let the other, more conservative candidates attack Trump, because that's who Trump is taking from," he says. "So Bush can afford to let Trump be Trump.

"What the other candidates have to do is force Trump to get out of his comfort area… issues like guns, religious issues, abortion – the issues that are otherwise going to Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, and some of these other candidates are issues he'll have to be strong on, because if he's not, he'll start losing some of his base that he's created," he said.

Newsmax correspondent Todd Beamon contributed to this report.