The U.S. Senate landscape is improving for Republican candidate Joni Ernst in Iowa, where a new Quinnipiac poll finds her widening a lead over Democrat Bruce Braley,
Talking Points Memo reports.
The poll found Ernst earning 49 percent to Braley's 45 percent with 5 percent of Iowa voters undecided, TPM noted, a reversal of two earlier polls, one from CBS and the other from Loras College, that had Braley in the lead or the two tied.
There was, however, one boost in the latest survey for Braley: a 21-point lead among those who already have voted, Quinnipiac pollsters noted.
The Loras College polling director told the
Des Moines Register that he thinks turnout is ever more crucial in the tight race.
"Iowa's intensely watched U.S. Senate race remains a toss-up," said Christopher Budzisz, an associate professor of politics at Loras, in a statement released Wednesday.
"It's something of a cliché in politics, but I think this year's Senate race may simply come down to turnout efforts," he said. "Given President Obama's low approval ratings in Iowa, Republicans expect to have more motivated voters and an Election Day turnout advantage. The early voters in the Senate race favored Braley by a 6-point margin in our poll."
Budzisz added of the latest data: "I think it is worthy to note that this new poll included two days of polling during the dust-up over the Ernst campaign's decision to cancel and/or forgo several newspaper editorial board visits.
"Here in Iowa, that decision made headlines and Ernst drew criticism. Only time will tell if this episode will have an effect on the final outcome."
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RealClearPolitics polling average through Oct. 27 also has Ernst up by 2.1 percentage points, but calls the race a toss-up.
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