Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would lose New Hampshire in the 2016 presidential election if she faced Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker or former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, a poll has found.
According to Dartmouth College's eighth annual
State of the State poll, conducted April 27-30 of 335 registered voters, Walker would win a match-up against the Democratic front-runner by 38.7 percent to 34.8 percent. He also has a commanding advantage in approval ratings among independent voters of 40.5 percent compared to 26.5 percent.
Bush also leads Clinton, but by a smaller margin: 36.9 percent to 34.1 percent, while 34.3 percent of independents favor Bush. In last year's poll, Bush trailed Clinton by 21 points.
Roughly 30 percent of those polled said they were undecided.
"If the Democratic primary field remains comparatively uncompetitive, Clinton will glide to a primary victory in New Hampshire as her core Democratic voter base is about as solid as one could hope for more than nine months from the New Hampshire primary," said Ronald Shaiko, the survey's director and a senior fellow and associate director of the Rockefeller Center.
"Her electoral success in November of 2016 in New Hampshire, however, is far from certain."
In a New Hampshire match-up with four declared Republican candidates, however, Clinton maintains the lead:
- She has an 11-point lead against Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, at 39.6 percent compared to 28.7 percent.
- Clinton leads Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul by 36.1 percent to 33.3 percent.
- Clinton has an advantage over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee of 38.1 percent to 31.1 percent.
- She is also ahead, but virtually tied, in a match-up with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, at 34.4 percent for Rubio vs. 34.5 percent for Clinton.
- Clinton also leads in a match-up with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 36.5 percent to 34.4 percent.
"In the seven trial heats, Clinton beats only Cruz and [Mike] Huckabee among undeclared/independent registered voters in the sample by 8 points and 4 points, respectively," Shaiko said.
"In last year's poll, Clinton beat Huckabee by 13 points among undeclared voters. She also beat Paul by 5 points, Christie by 3 points, and Bush by 21 points. This year, Bush beat Clinton among undeclared voters by 9 points."
In red-state Arizona, however, Clinton is showing some early traction, coming within 3 points in direct match-ups with seven GOP candidates,
Public Policy Polling reported Wednesday on its latest survey there.
Clinton ties with Bush at 41 percent and with newly announced candidate Ben Carson at 42 percent, and is down just 1 point against Walker and Cruz (44 to 43), PPP found of the Arizona match-ups.
Among other candidates, Clinton is down just 2 points to Marco Rubio (43-41) and 3 points to Mike Huckabee (44-41), who made his own announcement to seek a second try at the GOP nomination this week.
The pollsters added of the former secretary of state's formidable showing in the Southwest: "Clinton's deficit in every match-up is smaller than the amount Barack Obama lost the state by in 2008 and 2012."
The pollsters described the primary landscape for the GOP in Arizona as "a jumbled mess, as it is in most places."
Five candidates, they added, are polling in double digits. By turn, however, none earns more than 16 percent support, showing no real coalescing around a frontrunner as the GOP field widens.
Walker polled at 16 percent support, while Bush and Rubio came in with 14 percent, followed by Paul and Carson at 11, Cruz at 9, and Chris Christie and Huckabee with 5 percent each. Texas Gov. Rick Perry brought up the list of candidates polled with just 2 percent.
"Walker leads the field thanks to his strong support from voters who identify themselves as 'very conservative,'" the PPP pollsters added.
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