Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts is bouncing back in a come-from-behind battle with independent Greg Orman — pulling ahead of the challenger by 1 percentage point in one of the most closely watched contests in the nation, a new poll shows.
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CNN/ORC poll shows the GOP incumbent now leads Orman 49 percent to 48 percent — a sharp reversal from a recent
NBC/Marist poll that showed Orman a commanding 10 percentage points ahead.
"Turnout is likely to be key," according to said
CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
"The higher the number of Republicans who vote, the better for Roberts, and Republicans have been at least 43 percent of the vote [and usually higher] in Kansas elections since 2000."
Holland said Roberts' challenge will be to "convince disaffected Republicans to like him again."
"An 80 percent favorable rating among Republican likely voters in the current poll indicates that he may have closed that part of the deal," he said.
Orman's surge has been fueled in part when Democratic candidate Chad Taylor dropped off the ballot in September, allowing Orman to appeal to a broad swath of anti-Roberts voters on the right and left without competition, CNN notes.
The survey suggested there's plenty of room for movement in the race's final month, with 21 percent of likely voters saying they could still change their minds.
The Kansas race is being closely watched with control of the Senate at stake.
"It's up to Republican voters in Kansas to determine whether Barack Obama will have a Democratic Senate,"
pollster Frank Luntz said Tuesday. "They need to take that to heart."
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