The government reported that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter grew at a rate of 4.1 percent. The Left attacked the number as not sustainable going forward. The storyline was that the number was driven by the purchase of soybeans. The Left, by driving a stake in the ground that GDP increases will not continue, have not paid attention to the calendar. I believe they are taking a considerable risk that may cost them the November elections.
People like me along with others get paid to make predictions, but elected leaders take enormous risk in making their predictions, especially when they have no clue as to the subject matter. Closer attention to the calendar might have given the Democrats and their supporters something to think about before they criticized the GDP numbers.
You may be asking, what is Dan talking about? On Friday July 27, the government reported its first GDP reading for the second quarter 2018 at 4.1 percent. However, the report will be revised twice more at the end of August and the end of September. The July 27 report is a compliance report that has some things missing. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) calculates the advance estimate, but does not yet have complete source data, with the largest data gaps coming from the third month of the quarter. In particular, the advance estimate lacks complete source data on inventories, trade, and consumer spending on services. Therefore, BEA must make assumptions for these missing pieces, based in part on past trends.
Given the robustness and the momentum of the economy, I would expect the second and third adjustments to move GDP closer to 4.5 percent. If the August adjustment is higher, look for estimates for the 3rd quarter to be raised to perhaps 4.5 percent, if not closer to 5 percent.
On October 26, one month after the final revision of second quarter GDP, the initial forecast for the third quarter GDP will be released. Add to that the release of the jobs number on November 2. All of this takes place before the midterm elections on November 6. If the GDP and jobs numbers are favorable, it could be devastating for Democrats.
It seems the Democratic Left have needlessly backed themselves into a corner with very little wiggle room, should numbers be wrong for their side. I suggest the recent survey by Gallup shows there are many issues of concern, most significantly illegal immigration at 22 percent. By comparison, of those responding, climate change and Russia rated less than one percent.
It will be hard for the Democrats to attract a meaningful voter response while campaigning on a platform of open borders, elimination of ICE, and Homeland Security, as espoused by Democratic congressional candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. If you add to these issues the possibility of a healthy economy and low unemployment, the Democrats would have to conclude, as I have, that attacking GDP growth is a high-risk move.
Stephen Moore from The Washington Times said the “Predictions for the Left were wrong.” In the article, he lists many of the predictions made about President Trump and the adverse effects the country and the world would experience if Donald Trump were elected president. We know how that went!
Thankfully, the ability of the Left to call things correctly was wrong then, and I believe it is wrong again. I am reminded of the children’s story about the little boy who cried wolf so many times that when the real wolf came, the townspeople ignored his cries for help.
This time the Left has cried wolf too many times in trying to scare voters, and I doubt that many traditional Democrats will heed the call to vote Democratic. If the Democrats take the shellacking that I think they will take in November, I do not think it bodes well for them in the 2020 presidential election.
Do you agree with me that many of the potential Democratic presidential candidates will take a pass in the 2020 primaries if Trump and the Republicans expand control of both the House and Senate?
Dan Perkins is an author of both thrillers and children’s books. He appears on over 1,100 radio stations. Mr. Perkins appears regularly on international TV talk shows, he is current events commentator for seven blogs, and a philanthropist with his foundation for American veterans, Songs and Stories for Soldiers, Inc. More information about him, his writings, and other works are available on his website, DanPerkins.guru. To read more of his reports — Click Here Now.