Presidential hopefuls will probably not be waiting with bated breath to find out if they have come out on top in the straw poll this weekend at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference.
In fact, it might be better news if they lose. That’s because in CPAC’s 41-year history only three winners have gone to become the Republican nominee in the next presidential election.
According to the
National Journal, the straw polls are usually not a reliable indicator of who will nab the next GOP nomination. In fact, there’s only a 15 percent chance of a CPAC winner going on to become the nominee.
Ronald Reagan was a CPAC straw poll winner in 1976 and again in 1980, when he went on to become the GOP nominee and then be elected president. He also was the winner in 1984 before winning his second term in the White House.
George W. Bush won the straw poll in 2000, and then went on to get the party’s nod that year before being elected president.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won in 2007 and again in 2008, beating Arizona Sen. John McCain into second place. But that same year
he lost the party’s nomination to McCain, who was defeated by President Barack Obama in the general election.
Romney also won in 2009 and again in 2012, when he went on to become the Republican nominee before also losing to Obama.
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul has won the past two years, following in the footsteps of his libertarian father Ron Paul, who won in 2010 and 2011.
The annual CPAC straw poll traditionally serves as a barometer of how conservatives feel about rising Republicans and presidential hopefuls.
And the fact that the winners of CPAC poll usually do not become the GOP nominee is likely to be good news for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who has angered conservatives with his support of immigration and Common Core education standards.
In fact, one tea party member, William Temple, called for a bathroom boycott when Bush takes part in a 20-minute,
question-and-answer session Friday with Fox News host Sean Hannity.
The other potential Republican candidates for 2016 attending CPAC include New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, retired surgeon Ben Carson, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.