New Hampshire voters go to the polls today in presidential primaries that historically have cut the number of candidates down to size.
Not this year.
Real estate mogul Donald Trump still is poised to win the Republican contest and reassert control of the race after finishing second in Iowa, but as many as five others could place well enough to press on -- an outcome that could take the race well into the spring.
"Never have we gone this far, this long, with so many people unclear about their candidate, their choice for president,'' said Michael Dennehy, a New Hampshire Republican consultant who is not affiliated with a candidate. More than half of New Hampshire Republicans tells pollsters they haven't settled on a candidate.
The Democratic fight could drag on just as long. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders holds a commanding lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire after losing to her in Iowa by less than a percentage point. Clinton is still the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination but Sanders' team says it will fight to the end in upcoming contests across the Midwest and South.
Voting started just after midnight in three small towns in New Hampshire that can set their own hours, and most polls in the rest of the state close at 7 p.m. Eastern time. In one of those communities, Dixville Notch, Ohio Governor John Kasich came out on top with three votes, followed by Trump with two; Sanders won all four Democratic votes, according to the Associated Press.
A variety of factors could make for a topsy-turvy Election Day. New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner is predicting that 282,000 Republican and 268,000 Democratic ballots will be cast, which would top the turnout from 2008, the last time there was no incumbent president running in the primaries. High turnout is thought to favor Sanders and Trump, who have energized new voters and brought them into the process for the first time.
In addition, a quirk in New Hampshire law allows for independent voters—ones who don't belong to any political party—to show up and vote in either primary. About 44 percent of registered voters, or 389,000, are undeclared, and they are leaning toward Sanders, Trump and Kasich, who some polls put in second place.
Trump enjoys a 16 percentage-point lead in the RealClearPolitics average but his final tally ultimately may not be that large, depending on how many of his supporters actually get out to vote, said Steve Duprey, New Hampshire's Republican national committeeman who is neutral in the race. Trump's surprise second-place loss in Iowa was blamed in part on the ability of the winner, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, to better mobilize his support.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio appeared to emerge with momentum from a strong third-place finish in Iowa but a shaky debate performance in Saturday night emboldened his rivals and created a competitive fight with three governors: Kasich, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Rubio, Christie, Kasich and Bush are fighting to be the candidate of the so-called establishment voters and are clustered in a pack just behind Trump, along with Cruz.
There's an old political maxim that there are only three tickets out of New Hampshire, but that conventional wisdom has been upended this year. All three governors had staked their campaigns on performing well in New Hampshire, but if they finish close to each other, even the ones finishing third or fourth among that group can claim they essentially tied for second and move on to South Carolina's Feb. 20 contest, Duprey said. It's difficult to predict an order, he said.
"It's just so hotly contested, and there are so many good candidates who have run aggressive, hard campaigns,'' Duprey said. "It's almost like neighborhood-to-neighborhood combat here.''
Cruz suggested he was looking past the results in New Hampshire, saying his campaign "never viewed any of these states as a must win.'' Asked whether he can finish in second, Cruz told reporters on Monday that he expected to finish strong in South Carolina and then a group of southern states on March 1.
Bush has the funding and organization to continue in South Carolina, and Kasich said at a town hall in Plaistow on Monday that he was trading in his snow boots for flip-flops. Christie said he is arranging events in South Carolina and that as many as five candidates could move on to compete there.
Adding to the uncertainty about the finish is the large number of voters who hadn't committed to a candidate. A CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll released Sunday showed that only 45 percent of likely Republican primary voters said they had definitely decided who they will support, with 25 percent leaning toward a candidate, and 30 percent still trying to decide.
Also on Monday, the Financial Times reported former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said he is “looking at all the options” on a potential presidential run, his first public comments since the New York Times reported on his deliberations about an independent bid last month. He is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP. A representative for the former mayor, Marc La Vorgna, declined to comment.
On the Democratic side, Clinton's campaign has been trying to manage expectations in New Hampshire with the RealClearPolitics average of recent state polls showing Sanders with a lead of almost 13 percentage points, despite her razor- thin victory in Iowa last week.
Sanders' lead has narrowed in recent polls and Clinton is not conceding the race. Yet her supporters have been emphasizing Sanders' "home-field advantage'' as a New England candidate and suggesting that a close defeat would still be a victory as she heads to South Carolina and other early voting states where she is leading.
Sanders would position his better-than-expected performance in Iowa and an expected New Hampshire victory as giving momentum to his message of a rigged economy benefiting the wealthy, an argument for why he should continue a competitive and prolonged primary fight.
A winter storm dropped several inches of snow in central and southern New Hampshire on the final day of campaigning, but it shouldn't have a significant impact on today's turnout, Gardner said.
He recalled snow falling for 20 hours before the 1984 primaries, yet voters still lined up out the door of a polling place near the state capitol in mid-afternoon.
"It's a little more of an inconvenience, but it's not going to have anything other than a minimal impact,'' Gardner said.