So many governorships are up for grabs that this year's midterms could have an "enormous" impact and may alter the political balance of power for a decade, according to GOP Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour.
In an exclusive Newsmax.TV interview, Barbour suggests this midterm election will be one of the most important in recent memory due the effect of the 2010 U.S. Census.
"The year I was elected in 2003, and reelected in 2007, there were only three governors races," says Barbour, the chairman of the Republican Governors Association. "In 2008 there were only 11. Last year there were only two. This year there are 37."
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The winners of those 37 races may determine the outcome of future elections as well, because of the new political districts they will draw up.
"Because this is the year of the census," Barbour says, "that means the governors elected this year will preside over redistricting."
History shows Barbour is right about the importance of winning elections in years that end in zero.
After the 1990 Census, the GOP gained between 25 and 30 seats because of redistricting.
Without those seats, Fox News political commentator Karl Rove estimates, Republicans would have failed to gain control of the House in 1994.
And the pattern repeated itself after the 2000 Census.
The GOP controlled many governorships and state legislatures that year when the districts were redrawn. In the next two election cycles, an estimated 25 Democrats lost their seats in large measure because of the new demographics.
Governors have a major role in the redistricting process in 39 out of the 50 states, Barbour says.
In the other states, state legislators control redistricting.
But Republicans are expected to perform well across the board this year, including in down-ballot races because of the political wave hitting Democrats.
"I think it just shows the Obama policies are unpopular all over the country," Barbour says. "They've made Republicans competitive in places where we wouldn't always be competitive."
He sees another reason the 2010 midterm will be critical as well.
"Of course, the governors elected this year will be governing in 2012, when we have our next presidential election," he tells Newsmax. "So it is a very important year."
Barbour says frustration with Democratic policies justify Republican optimism. But he adds: "The left is going to outspend Republicans in this election. So Republicans can't take anything for granted."
Barbour also says voter dissatisfaction with healthcare reform is giving Republican candidates a major boost.
The president's attempted healthcare overhaul would have worked much better, he says, had the administration allowed states to implement their own reforms. Then he could have selected the best ideas to implement nationally.
"And believe it or not, there are a bunch of Democratic governors who thought that too, at the same time," Barbour tells Newsmax. "Instead of that, we've got ObamaCare, which is a government-run healthcare system that is going to drive up the cost of healthcare."
Barbour says another advantage for Republican candidates is that they can point to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell as successful role models. Those two governors, he says, "are doing exactly what American people want" by fighting budget deficits.
"What they did was they addressed it not by raising taxes, but by cutting spending, by getting control of spending, by reform of state government to make state government smaller, not bigger," Barbour says. "Washington always sees more spending to give the government more power and control over our lives. The Chris Christies, the Bob McDonnells, see the Republican alternative. And that's smaller government equals a bigger economy."
Barbour gave Newsmax his analysis of key governors' races around the nation:
New York — The Mississippi Republican credits GOP gubernatorial nominee Carl Paladino with shaking up the race in New York. He concedes that Empire State Attorney Gen. Andrew Cuomo is still the favorite with a double-digit lead. "But this race is a lot more interesting since Carl Paladino became our party's nominee," he says.
South Carolina — Despite vacillating poll numbers, Barbour remains confident that GOP candidate Nikki Haley will defeat Democrat Vincent Sheheen. "Nikki Haley looks very strong, she's got the party unified behind her," Barbour tells Newsmax. "And the people of South Carolina are not about to elect somebody who supports president Obama on the healthcare and the stimulus package like Sheheen has done."
Florida — Barbour continues to be impressed by insurgent tea party favorite Rick Scott, who emerged from a hard-fought GOP primary. Barbour says Scott "came out of the clear blue sky." Recent polls show Scott and Democratic opponent Alex Sink to be deadlocked. "It's going to be a competitive race, there's no question about that," Barbour tells Newsmax. "But I think the odds clearly favor Rick Scott."
Michigan — GOP gubernatorial candidate Rick Snyder "turned out to be far and away our best candidate," Barbour says. Snyder won a tough primary against four solid GOP rivals. Polls show Snyder with a double-digit lead over Democrat Virg Bernero. "Michigan is dying for change," Barbour says. "Michigan's got the highest unemployment in the country, serious, serious problems." But he cautiously adds: "It's not over until it's over."
Arizona — Gov. Jan Brewer continues to benefit from her tough stance on immigration. "It turned the race totally upside down," Barbour says. "Everybody in Arizona recognizes that this needs to be done, that this is just reasonable enforcement of the current law, that if the federal government isn't going to enforce the law, then somebody else has to enforce the law. So she's been, as we say at home, she's been as strong as an acre of garlic ever since that passed."
Colorado — The race between Republican Dan Maes and Democrat John Hickenlooper has been complicated with the presence of former GOP Rep. Tom Tancredo, who is running as a third-party candidate. An Oct. 4 Rasmussen Reports survey showed likely voters supporting Hickenlooper over Tancredo by 43 percent to 35 percent, with Maes trailing at 16 percent. "No question it helps the Democrats," Barbour says of Tancredo's presence on the ballot, adding: "When you split the conservative vote, that's Barack Obama's fondest prayer."
California — Barbour believes there's still time for Republican Meg Whitman to make a comeback against longtime establishment Democrat Jerry Brown. Brown has been battered lately by the revelation that someone in his campaign was recorded referring to Whitman as "a whore." In their final debate, Brown offered an ungracious apology that commentator Mike Barnicle likened to pouring more fuel on the fire. Barbour says the California race is "still in play on a variety of levels." He indicates a heavy GOP turnout could make the polls irrelevant.