Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's poll numbers have been dropping in the days following FBI Director James Comey's letter over her email server, but the real reason is likely the outcry over growing costs for Obamacare policies, Republican strategist Karl Rove said Wednesday.
"It was impactful, but how impactful, I don't know," Rove told Fox News' "Fox & Friends" program. "Take a look at the RealClearPolitics average. A 5.6 lead for Hillary, [then] Friday the news breaks, but it's 4.6. By Saturday, it's still 4.6. By Sunday, 4.3. Monday, 3.1. Tuesday, 2.2. And this morning, it's 1.7. That's not all because of what happened on Friday."
The race was closing before Friday on its own, Rove continued, but the question remains about how much Comey's letter accelerated that trend.
"My sense is polling on the weekends is difficult," said Rove. "Polling on a weekend with a holiday is sort of goofy. So I think we ought to wait until Thursday or Friday when we get polls conducted after the Friday event, but also after the Halloween weekend."
But beyond that, Obamacare is the key to the the numbers changing, said Rove, and GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump has been running a more disciplined campaign in recent weeks.
"He's made it about big issues, Supreme Court, Obamacare, rebuilding the military," said Rove. "[And] particularly emphasizing Obamacare, which was helped by the fact there was a lot of news about how bad Obamacare was."
Also, there is a natural tendency for partisan voters to "return home," said Rove, and "a lot more partisan Republicans were out there sort of thinking about what to do than partisan Democrats."
And then, there's Clinton herself, and she doesn't look good, said Rove. "She looks angry," and that is not "appealing."
"She looks upset," he said. "She comes across as hectoring."
He did point out, though, that the RealClearPolitics average may be overstating where the race is, including Trump's support.
"At this point in 2012, it had Mitt Romney ahead by 0.8, nearly a point," said Rove. "This track is probably a little bit more robust for Trump than it should be because it's got a couple of these polls that I'm frankly dubious of, like the USC tracking poll."
The race is moving in Trump's direction, but the question remains how long that will continue, Rove continued.
Meanwhile, using yet another of his ubiquitous white eraser boards, Rove pointed out that Trump will need to take Florida, Iowa, and Ohio, along with North Carolina, to seize 259 electoral votes, but that still won't be the 270 he needs to win.
"So he's got to pick three of these states, which in the RealClearPolitics average range from about one point down to about eight points down ... to get to 270," said Rove, suggesting Trump focus on Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado. "That's going to require discipline. Look, he's not going to win New Mexico. I love the state. It's right next door to my state of Texas. But it has about 45 percent, 50 percent Latino vote. He's not going to win the state. Don't be spending time in places had where he can't win."