Donald Trump is ahead of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio by double-digit margins in five major polls heading into Tuesday's primary elections in his home state, and while he denies he'll drop out if he loses the race and the 99 winner-take-all delegates, his state will likely be his last chance of remaining in the race.
"It's not a matter of do or die — it's done," Florida Republican strategist Chris Ingram told
The Hill. "If you believe the polls, all are consistently, except one, showing him losing in double digits. How do you overcome that? Can that many polls be wrong?"
According to a
Real Clear Politics average of the Florida polls, Trump is in first place by 18.6 points over Rubio, at 43 percent to 24 percent, and five polls released on Monday back up those numbers:
Monmouth University Poll:
- Trump: 44 percent;
- Rubio, 27 percent;
- Among minorities: Rubio, 41-35 percent;
- Non-Hispanic whites, 46-23 percent.
Quinnipiac Poll:
- Trump, 46 percent;
- Rubio, 22 percent.
Florida Times Union:
- Trump: 44 percent;
- Rubio, 26 percent.
Trafalgar Group:
- Trump, 44 percent;
- Rubio, 24 percent.
American Research Group:
- Trump, 49 percent;
- Rubio, 24 percent
"Marco's at peace; he knows he put it all out there and whatever happens happens," a longtime Rubio backer and fundraiser told
Politico. "His faith is real. He knows he has been blessed. But don't get me wrong: We're still praying."
Rubio's campaign, meanwhile, is running out of time, with donor money drying up, and even in his Miami-Dade home district, Rubio would have to carry 75 percent of the vote to tie Trump statewide, even if Trump got none of the votes from that county.
According to a Bendixen & Amandi International/Tarrance Group/Univision/Washington post poll last week, Hispanic Republicans do favor Rubio by 49-19 percent over Trump, reports Politico, but there are not enough Latino Republican voters in Florida to push Rubio into the win column.
Further, 21 percent of the Latino voters picked Cruz, effectively splitting the vote.
Trump also scored a key endorsement Monday with Attorney General Pam Bondi, which will also push his numbers past Rubio's, and even former Gov. Jeb Bush, at one time Rubio's mentor, has not backed the Florida senator's bid for the nomination, likely saving his endorsement for someone who will remain in the race.
If Rubio pulls out, he'll return to the Senate as a lame-duck member, reports The Hill, but few expect his political career to come to an end, given his young age. Many believe he'll turn to a lucrative career in the private sector or as a political pundit, which would not rule out his return to public life.
However, a loss in Tuesday's Florida primary could make a comeback difficult, especially if he attempts a run for governor in 2013.
"It's a huge embarrassment not to win your state outright when there are, not counting Trump as a Floridian, no other Floridians in the race," Ingram said. "While it's not the whole story, it's something of a referendum on him."