Polling begun and completed after the March 10 debate shows radical changes in Ohio and Illinois ahead of their March 15 primaries. In both primaries, Ted Cruz is surging, on the strength of a strong debate performance.
In Ohio, a winner take all primary with 66 delegates on the line, the latest poll by CBS, conducted from March 9-11, shows Trump and Kasich tied at 33% each with Ted Cruz surging to 27% up from his pre-debate showing of 19%.
Easy to dismiss as an outlier? Not if you also look at CBS’ Illinois poll that has Trump leading by 38-34 over Cruz after he had held a 34-25 lead earlier in the week.
And then there is Wyoming. Not a poll, but an actual caucus where Cruz won with an overwhelming 68% of the vote. Rubio ran second with 20% and Trump finished third — his first third place finish — with only 7%.
All these findings suggest that the March 10th debate may have been a big winner for Cruz. When Trump said that there were only two candidates who could win — he and Cruz — he may have unintentionally caused a massive exodus from Kasich and Rubio to the Texan.
Now, Cruz has a real shot at winning Ohio and Illinois. Coupled with North Carolina and Missouri — in both he has been polling a close second — March 15th could be the turning point of the race.