Donald Trump’s latest controversy has sent his impeachment odds soaring among bettors in the online prediction markets.
Embroiled by allegations he urged Ukraine’s leader to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden in return for military aid, the price of a “yes” share in Trump being impeached by year-end shot up to 42 cents on PredictIt Tuesday, doubling from Sunday’s close. The Washington Post reported that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi planned to announce a formal impeachment inquiry.
The current price equates to a 42% chance the House will vote to level charges, the first step in removing Trump from office.
To be sure, the Democratic-led House has yet to begin proceedings and Pelosi has been reluctant in the past to endorse impeachment. Still, she acknowledged the House may be at a turning point with Trump’s refusal to allow Congress to see a whistle-blower’s complaint on the Ukraine matter.
The previous high in the past three months was 20 cents on June 26. That was the night of the first Democratic presidential debate, which saw former Texas Representative Beto O’Rourke call for impeachment proceedings to begin.
PredictIt is similar to a stock market. Shares are bought and sold at prices up to $1. If impeachment happens by year-end, a person holding one “yes” share would receive a dollar. But if it doesn’t, she’d lose her money.