The victory of 20-year New York City police officer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams in the all-important Democratic primary for mayor last week demonstrates that the issue of law and order will pack a powerful punch in 2021-22, several political experts told Newsmax.
But the same experts also agree that the progressive wing of the Democratic Party is going to fight back hard against ''tough on crime'' candidates such as Adams.
In near-final returns that included the ''ranked choice'' voting system, Adams — who once talked of carrying a pistol in Gracie Mansion, the city's mayoral residence — edged out Kathryn Garcia, a former city sanitation commissioner.
''She won about 40 percent of first-choice votes in the affluent areas — and less than 10 percent in most others,'' wrote Michael Barone, author of ''The Almanac of American Politics.'' ''[Adams'] secret is that he ran way ahead, with 45 to 75 percent of first-choice votes in a multicandidate field, in heavily Black and Latino neighborhoods in the Bronx, Brooklyn and Queens.''
Noting Garcia's strong showing in affluent neighborhoods (Manhattan, Brooklyn Heights-Prospect Park, and Forest Hills in Queens) where crime is low, Barone concluded that ''left-wing policies may be supported by hipster whites with adolescent enthusiasm, but gentry liberals increasingly have abstract questions about them, and they are rejected roundly by people of color — Blacks, Latinos, Chinese — out of concrete concerns.''
''As [lame duck Mayor] Bill de Blasio's 2013 victory presaged a swing to more radical urban progressivism, Eric Adams' victory may presage a reaction to surging crime and uncertainty in the nation's cities,'' said David Pietrusza, author of six books on presidential election years and an authority on all things New York.
He added, however, that ''it is not the straw in the wind, with the Manhattan district attorney's office now marching off in the opposite direction, and [Gov.] Andrew Cuomo predictably taking aim at guns rather than at the criminals that employ them and other means of violence and illegality.''
Pietrusza's assessment was seconded by G. Terry Madonna, a senior fellow in residence at Millersville University of Pennsylvania who is considered the premier pollster in that state.
''It seems that law and order is now a powerful issue,'' Madonna told us. ''We have to see how many urban candidates use law and order themes in their campaigns. But it's also going to galvanize the progressives, if they need any galvanizing.''
Dan Schnur, professor at the University of California, Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies and top aide to GOP former California Gov. Pete Wilson, observed that ''President Biden has long understood the value of crime and public safety policy to Republican candidates and the importance of not allowing his GOP opponents to argue that Democrats cannot be trusted on these issues.
"His roots are in the Rust Belt working class, for whom law enforcement and safety have always been central to the political and societal conversation. In the 1990s, he worked with then-President Bill Clinton to pass a tough-on-crime legislative package from which he has since distanced himself, but in that era allowed Democrats to reclaim the political center.''
Schnur also pointed out that ''Biden's advisers know that his reelection will depend largely on his handling of COVID-19 and economic recovery. They recognize that he has ambitious goals on climate change, immigration and many other policy fronts. But Biden understands that being tough — enough — on crime will offer him necessary political protection when he faces the voters again.''
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.