Barely 16 months after he completed a prison term for income tax evasion, former Rep. Michael Grimm, R.-N.Y., announced last week he would attempt to retake the U.S. House seat he held from 2011 to 2014.
Grimm's old 11th District covers all of Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn. It has long been New York City's only GOP seat and few Republican leaders Newsmax talked with are dismissing Grimm's challenge to incumbent Republican Rep. Dan Donovan.
Grimm's chances are enhanced because Donovan has voted against President Donald Trump on key issues such as the repeal effort of Obamacare and objecting to parts of Trump's tax reform package.
At his announcement rally October 1, Grimm hit Donovan's record hard, telling cheering supporters: "We'll have our President's back!"
"The 11th Congressional District is Trump country," Grimm campaign quarterback and onetime Trump operative Mike Caputo told reporters. "It's time for Republicans who oppose the president to pay a price for that."
In the presidential election last year, the district gave Trump a resounding 56 percent victory over Hillary Clinton's 41 percent. In 2014, despite being under a 20-count federal indictment, Grimm still won re-election by 13 points.
Despite taking the conservative mantle this year and teaming up with alt-right website Breitbart, Grimm had a weak conservative voting record during his time in Congress. The American Conservative Union (ACU) gave him a mediocre 46 percent in his final year in Congress, which was an improvement over his 27 percent rating in 2013.
Grimm's lifetime rating with the ACU is 47 percent.
This is not much different from Donovan's overall record. The ACU gave him a 44 percent rating in 2016, up from 35 percent in 2015.
Both Grimm and Donovan's conservative record pales in comparison with former Rep. Vito Fossella, a Republican who held the district from 1997 until 2009. ACU reports Fossella had 83 percent for his lifetime record.
Some Republican leaders think Grimm's return would be disastrous to the party's image and believe that Fossella would be a stronger candidate than Donovan.
Fossella, after leaving Congress has remained active in local politics and has close ties to the Trump White House. Fossella played a lead role in Trump's primary win in Staten Island, which gave him the largest margin of any county in the state.
Some national conservatives are willing to forgive Grimm for his legal transgressions and his past voting record. Former White House counselor Steve Bannon, for example, recently said he would back Grimm's insurgent bid.
"Grimm is a populist-type candidate and as such he has a chance," Gerard Kassar, Conservative Party chairman of Brooklyn, told Newsmax. "But he has a long way to go before he will be able to convince the rank-and-file Republican primary voters they should move from Dan to him."
Former Rep. Fossella told Newsmax he has no interest in entering the race and is supporting Donovan.
"Dan Donovan has the reputation of being a well-liked and effective congressman who reflects the priorities of Staten Island and Brooklyn," he said.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.