The news last week that Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., was indicted on 13 counts has Republicans worried about keeping his 3rd District seat.
The district is an important one; control over it could be crucial to the Republicans keeping the House. House Republicans hold a slim majority of four votes.
In recent years New York's 3rd District — one that sprawls from residential Queens into suburban Nassau County — was a Democrat seat. Moderate Democrat Tom Suozzi last held the seat, which he gave up in a losing bid for governor last year.
While Republicans believed the 2022 redistricting of the 3rd had made it more Republican, Santos' actions have imperiled GOP chances of winning the seat.
Wisely, Nassau County Republican Chair Joe Cairo and his organization were early in calling for Santos to resign.
So far he has not taken their advice. As the noose tightens, it's unclear what will happen.
While many are betting Santos will resign under a plea-bargaining arrangement to avoid prosecution and likely incarceration, others think he might stick it out.
Santos can remain in Congress while under indictment or even after being convicted.
In the past, congressmen who have gotten into trouble with the Justice Department typically move quickly in resigning their office and often avoiding indictment.
Politicos who know Santos describe him as "delusional" and say that he might have to be handcuffed to be removed from the House.
"Santos lied about everything in the campaign, so I don't believe him when he says he'll fight these charges in court and run for reelection," one Brooklyn-area political operative told Newsmax.
"And while House Speaker [Kevin] McCarthy may say the House shouldn't expel him because he was elected, folks here think he said anything to get elected and should definitely be expelled. He's an embarrassment."
Democrats are also anxious for Santos to go and for the seat to open.
Forty Democrats and Republican lawmakers signed on to a resolution by Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Calif., to make Santos the third U.S. Representative since the Civil War to be expelled from the House.
Should Santos step down before Sept. 1, New York Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul would be required to call an election within 80 days, and almost certainly would schedule it to coincide with New York municipal elections on the first Tuesday of November.
However, if Santos were to resign after Sept. 1, it would portend a special election sometime in early 2024.
In the event of such a special election, special party committees rather than primaries are expected to choose the major party nominees.
With three Democrats already announced for the nomination in 2024, there is strong confidence on the Democrat side about capturing a district that went for Joe Biden with roughly 54% of the vote in 2020.
Robert Zimmerman, the Democrats' 2022 candidate who lost to Santos, has signaled he will run again. Former Rep. Suozzi also is said to be a likely candidate and the immediate front-runner if he does.
On the Republican side, an oft-discussed GOP hopeful is state Sen. Jack Martins, who has waged strong but losing bids for Congress and Nassau County executive.
Rep. Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, has sent strong signals that his organization will go all out if Martins is the GOP candidate in a special election.
In the last election, Santos' margin of victory came from the extra votes he received from the New York Conservative Party ballot line.
Conservative Party State Chair Gerard Kassar told Newsmax: "We will be working closely with the Nassau and Queens GOP to produce a united front in order to hold the seat."
Kassar urged Santos to "resign immediately."
"Given the clear delusional nature of his personality, I suspect he incorrectly thinks he can survive, but he cannot," Kassar said.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.