Sen. Marco Rubio’s expected announcement Monday that he will seek the Republican nomination for president has set off what can only be called a race full of surprises for the Senate seat the Floridian has said he will relinquish.
The latest such surprise came Saturday with the stunning announcement by Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater, widely presumed to be the favorite for the GOP nod, that he would not run after all.
"I will not be a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016," said Atwater, a former state Senate president who was a favorite of both his party’s "establishment" and the tea party.
Proclaiming himself "humbled" by the encouragement to run, he concluded that he was "committed to only one endeavor and that is to be the best CFO I can be for the people of Florida."
Atwater’s surprise exit came days after two-term State Attorney General Pam Bondi, whom polls also showed a strong Senate contender, told reporters, "I don’t believe I should be running for another office instead of running my office."
Republicans are now widely expected to have what Rubio himself predicted would be "multiple candidacies" for nomination to his seat before the May 6 filing deadline.
Rubio, taking a page from the book of Barry Goldwater in his 1964 bid for presidency, made it clear he would not try to run for president and Senate re-election at the same time.
"If I make that decision [to run for president], it will not be with the intention of looking for a 'Plan B' if it doesn’t work out," he told Newsmax in January, "My plan is not to run for president and, if I don’t succeed, then, to qualify for the Senate. That is not my intention at all.
Aside from Atwater and Bondi, the only other candidate mentioned for the Republican nod who has run statewide is Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera. Most Florida sources Newsmax spoke to felt that after only winning his present office last fall, Lopez-Cantera was unlikely to seek another office in 2016.
But given the obvious opening in the Republican Senate field now, he may jump into the race. The state’s second-highest elected official comes from the Miami-Dade area, which has the most GOP voters in Florida.
Two U.S. House members being boomed as Senate candidates are Reps. Ron DeSantis, a sophomore lawmaker and tea party hero, and Tom Rooney, a four-termer who is considered more moderate and is a scion of the family that owns the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Like George H.W. Bush, DeSantis, is a onetime Yale University baseball team captain and decorated U.S. Navy veteran. With more than $1 million in his campaign coffers and a fervent following among the GOP’s conservative grass roots, he has been in the news most recently with his strong criticism of the administration’s proposed nuclear deal with Iran.
Another GOP prospect is state House Speaker Will Weatherford, considered a strong conservative. Weatherford gave no clues over the weekend as to whether he would run or not.
On the Democratic side, it had long been taken for granted that the Senate nominee would be two-term Rep. Patrick Murphy. In recent weeks, however, the left wing of the party has been mobilizing opposition to self-styled "Bill Clinton Democrat" Murphy, son of a multi-millionaire developer in Palm Beach. Many on the left want controversial Rep. Alan Grayson to oppose Murphy in the August primary.
But Murphy may have problems of his own. On April 6, a conference call with reporters was held by four prominent left-of-center Florida Democrats voicing their hopes of recruiting a candidate more to their liking than centrist Murphy.
One of participants, Democratic Progressive Caucus of Florida President Susan Smith, told reporters: "Progressives are the heart and soul of the Florida Democratic Party and we are prepared to build a grass-roots movement to nominate a bold and inspiring candidate with a record of fighting for the values we hold dear."
Smith and her allies would no doubt love to have Grayson, known for his viper-tongued comments about conservatives, carry their standard in the primary against Murphy. While not endorsing Murphy, Grayson has yet to show any signs of interest in opposing him.
A possible beneficiary of the left’s pique with Murphy is the candidate already in the primary: Pam Keith, an attorney and U.S. Navy veteran. Keith is the daughter of Kenton Keith, former U.S. ambassador to Qatar. Whether she can raise the substantial funds required for a statewide race in Florida is uncertain.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax.