Local election results in Britain last week may contain an ominous warning for Democrats in November. The opposition Labour Party scored huge gains in races for county councils and regional mayors on May 2, but it suffered a stunning 21% loss of support among Muslim voters.
Although Labour Leader Keir Starmer has in recent weeks tempered his support of Israel and its response to the Oct. 7 sneak attack from Hamas, his pro-Israel stance remains strong. It has clearly upset many among Britain's 3.9 million Muslim population.
Experts on British politics agree that the narrow reelection of West Midlands' Conservative Mayor Andy Street, a top target of Labour, and the gain of 74 municipal seats by the Green Party were the result of Muslims "taking a walk" from their traditional friend Labour.
Despite this, Starmer is widely tipped to be Britain's next prime minister with polls showing Labour leading the ruling Conservative party by about 20%. A national election is expected later this year.
Now, some experts in the U.S. are wondering whether a similar exodus of Muslim support for Democrats could endanger President Joe Biden in key states where the race looks close — notably Michigan, where 2.4% of statewide voters (or 241,828 citizens) consider themselves Muslim.
"Yes, Biden could lose a chunk of the Muslim vote," said Bill Ballenger, editor of the online newsletter on Michigan politics "The Ballenger Report.," "But the question is whether that vote is big enough to make a difference. I've been saying it's not, but if the November outcome is as close as 2016, it might."
In 2016, Donald Trump eked out a win of Michigan's 16 electoral votes by 15,704 votes out of more than 2.5 million cast (or .23% of the total).
"There are parallels to the U.K., but also important differences," Henry Olsen of the Ethics and Public Policy Center told Newsmax. "Biden has been much more angling for a Gaza cease-fire than Starmer and is also running against Donald Trump, who has historically been staunchly pro-Israeli and friendly with [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Bibi Netanyahu."
Given the similarities between Biden and Trump on Israel, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s strong pro-Israel stand, Muslim voters in Michigan may turn to another independent presidential hopeful: Cornel West, who has said, "There's got to be Palestinian dignity [and] equality" and that "both sides are enabling genocide."
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.