For easily a year, Montana's three-term Democrat Sen. Jon Tester has been one of the premier Republican targets for extinction in '24.
With a lifetime American Conservative Union rating of 21% and two close elections since he unseated the late GOP Sen. Conrad Burns in 2006, Tester could easily be beaten by a strong Big Sky Country Republican.
The problem for Republicans, however, is that they may be facing a costly and divisive primary for the Senate nomination and any lingering rancor from the race will almost surely help Tester.
At this point, multimillionaire firefighting company owner and decorated Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy is officially in the race. Proclaiming himself the "America First Candidate" and running on the slogan "Send in the SEAL," Sheehy has received encouragement from Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines, also of Montana.
"[H]e also boasts great personal wealth that he could inject into a bid," reported the Washington DC publication Politico.
Although Sheehy checks the proverbial boxes for conservative stands on cultural and economic issues, the first-time candidate is seen by many on the right as an "establishment" Republican hand-picked for the race by party leaders. In contrast, they say, GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale is the true MAGA candidate and political outsider.
Five years ago, then-State Auditor Rosendale lost a heart-breakingly close contest to Tester. He rebounded to win election to the House and soon established himself as a conservative insurgent.
The Montanan was one of the first GOP lawmakers to call for the ouster of then-Rep. Liz Cheney as Conference Chairman and was one of the 15 Republican "holdouts" in electing Kevin McCarthy speaker in January.
To no one's surprise, Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Mike Lee, R-Utah, have made clear their hope Rosendale decides to run.
But among Montana Republicans, there is a hope that the party can unite around one candidate and duck a potential ugly primary whose remaining scars will help Tester win a fourth term.
"Sheehy, is telegenic, wealthy enough to self-finance a campaign, and unlike Rosendale has no record to attack, and no enemies," former Secretary of State and 2004 GOP gubernatorial nominee Bob Brown said. "In addition Tester has beaten Rosendale before, and Matt could easily keep his House seat."
What Rosendale's eventual plans are and when he will announce them is now a major political story in Washington, D.C.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.