The petition to recall Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom is on the threshold of triggering a campaign for the second recall of a sitting governor in 18 years. This election takes place under a set of rules vastly different from normal state elections, making the task of prognosticators extremely difficult.
Upon certification by the state, the election must be held between 88 and 125 days of certification which means that the election will take place in September or October.
Needless to say, it will be a wild summer in the Golden State.
California voters will be presented with two ballot questions.
First, Should Gov Newsome be recalled? If 50% plus one vote is in the ‘yes’ column Governor Newsom is removed from office.
The second question is: Who should serve out the remainder of the term?
If the Governor is removed from office, then the candidate with the most votes serves the year and a half of Newsom’s term. One of the peculiarities of California election law is that there will not be a primary election in a state wide recall.
Anybody can appear on the gubernatoiral ballot with minimal effort or expense,. During California’s last recall election, there were more 120 candidates running for the office.
California’s Democrats outnumber Republicans 46%-24% with an additional 24% having no party preference.
Republicans cannot divide their vote by having more than one major standard bearer.
In 2003, now Rep. Darrell Issa bankrolled the recall effort to remove Gray Davis with the intento run for Governor himself. It became clear that Arnold Schwarzenegger was the best candidate and Mr. Issa, in an act of statesmanship, bowed out ceding the GOP mantle to the Terminator.
Under California law, candidates must submit their paperwork no later than 59 days before the recall election to appear on the ballot.
Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Falconer is openly campaigning, as is former gubernatorial nominee John Cox. This is a primary election minus the voters. Each of these men are seeking to build a commanding position where he can make the case that it is the other who should bow out and not file papers to be on the ballot.
No doubt GOP heavyweights will entice one or the other to bow out or run for something else.
On the Democratic side, the thinking is that it is best to ignore the recall and see if it gains steam all the while painting it as a Trump led effort run by Trumpists for Trumpists. Did they mention Trump? They will, you can count on it he Trump brand is radioactive in California even with a significant number of Republicans. Not defending it, just explaining it.
However, ambitious Democrats in Sacramento will be watching Gavin Newsom’s polling numbers in the coming months while quietly building out a campaign machine ready to go at the filing deadline if it looks like Newsom is in real trouble. The problem for the Democrats is that they too risk dividing the vote if one or more join Newsom on the ballot. If Newsom’s approval goes no lower than the high forties Democrat power brokers should be able to keep another Democrat or two from jumping into the race. If Newsom’s numbers crater all bets are off and this could be a real race.
John Jordan, former Navy intelligence officer, pilot, attorney, international economist, overseer at Stanford's Hoover Institution and conservative political consultant. Jordan is a regular contributor for Fox News Channel, Newsmax, Sky News London and Sky News Australia. Read John Jordan's Reports — More Here.