Emerson College Poll: Trump Leads Biden by 1 Point

Poll (Dreamstime)

By    |   Friday, 16 February 2024 10:51 AM EST ET

Former President Donald Trump maintains a slight edge over President Joe Biden in the 2024 race for the White House, according to the latest Emerson College poll.

Trump receives 45% support, Biden 44% and 11% are undecided, the Emerson survey found.

The Emerson College poll results released Friday show that support for both Trump and Biden has decreased by 1 point since the previous national poll in January.

"There is a stark divide in 2024 support among voters with and without a college degree: Voters without a college degree break for Trump 48% to 39%, whereas voters with a college degree break for Biden 52% to 39%," Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said.

Both Trump and Biden are the clear front-runners to represent their respective party on its national ticket.

With third-party candidates Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein added to the hypothetical ballot, Trump leads Biden 40% to 38%. A total of 7% support RFK Jr., and 1% support Stein and West, respectively. Another 13% are undecided.

In the Republican primary, Trump (77%) trounces former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (13%), and 10% are undecided.

A total of 56% of GOP primary voters say Haley should drop out, while 31% say she should remain in the race. Another 13% are unsure or have no opinion on the matter.

Emerson College also asked survey participants whether Biden's age or Trump's legal woes raised serious doubts about voting for them.

A total of 58% say Biden's age raises serious doubts about voting for the president and 42% say it is not a serious consideration of theirs.

A total of 57% say Trump's criminal indictments raise serious doubts about voting for Trump and 43% say it is not a serious consideration of theirs.

Among independent voters, 54% say Biden's age raises serious doubts for them, while 61% say Trump's criminal indictment raises serious doubts.

The issues are of lesser concern within the candidates' parties, as 45% of Democrats say Biden's age raises doubts, and 30% of Republicans say the same about Trump's indictments.

Emerson College found that Biden's job approval remained steady at 42%, unchanged since last month, while 47% disapprove of the job he's doing in office.

"While the President's approval has remained the same since last month, it has decreased a few points among independent voters, from 37% to 34%, reflecting a drop in a number that was trending upward for the president since November 2023," Kimball said.

The Emerson College poll results also included other hypothetical presidential general election matchups:

  • Trump (46%) leads against Vice President Kamala Harris (43%).
  • Trump (46%) leads against California Gov. Gavin Newsom (36%).
  • Trump (45%) leads against Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (33%).

The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted Feb. 13-14 among 1,225 voters. It has margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

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Former President Donald Trump maintains a slight edge over President Joe Biden in the 2024 race for the White House, according to the latest Emerson College poll. Trump receives 45% support, Biden 44% and 11% are undecided, the Emerson survey found.
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