Former President Donald Trump is closing the gap with President Joe Biden in a potential 2024 rematch in Virginia, according to a new poll showing Biden ahead of Trump by 49% to 43%, with 8% of the voters saying they remain undecided.
Biden defeated Trump in the 2020 election in Virginia by 10 percentage points, 54.1% to 44%, and Democrats have carried the state in four straight presidential elections but the new survey from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy shows tighter numbers, reports the Richmond Times-Dispatch.
The new survey, conducted from Dec. 15-19, 2023, of 625 registered voters and carrying a margin of error of 4 percentage points, showed Biden is carrying a stronger lead in the "urban crescent" located from Northern Virginia, through the Richmond metro area, and to Hampton Roads:
- In Northern Virginia, Biden led Trump 63% to 27%.
- In Hampton Roads, Biden came out ahead of Trump by 59% to 35%.
- In the Richmond metro area, Biden led Trump by 53% to 38%.
- However, Trump scored higher in the regions from Roanoke to the Southwest, as well as the Central/Shenandoah and the Lynchburg/Southside regions.
Trump also carried self-described independents by 46% to 41%, with 13% undecided.
Meanwhile, Biden's job approval among those surveyed was evenly divided, with 49% approving and 49% disapproving, while 2% said they were not sure.
The numbers were up slightly since a year ago, when 45% said they approved of Biden's job performance; 52% disapproved and 3% were not sure.
"There is a clear disconnect between Biden's job rating and his current election performance against Trump," commented Brad Coker, CEO and managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy. "Under normal circumstances, a 49%/49% incumbent job rating would show a similarly close margin in a reelection matchup.
"However, Biden runs ahead of his performance. This shows that while there is speculation he is losing his Democratic base — demonstrated to some extent in his mixed job rating — these base groups (younger voters, women, and Black voters) still vote for him against Trump."
He also said there is a "parallel trend" in a 58% approval rating for GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin in December, despite party losses in November's legislative elections.
The results, Coker said, were "much more about a rejection of former President Donald Trump" than of Youngkin.
The governor said he will not endorse a candidate ahead of the state's March 5 primary, but said he will endorse Trump if he is the party's eventual nominee.