If the 2024 presidential election is a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, more Democrats than Republican voters said they would be willing to consider a third-party or independent candidate, according to a poll released Wednesday.
The NBC News poll conducted June 16-20 of 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, showed 44% overall would consider a third-party or independent candidate if there is a Biden-Trump rematch, with 53% saying they would not. Among Democrats, 45% said they would favor another candidate, while the figure for Republicans was 34%.
Republican pollster Bill McInturff — whose firm, Public Opinion Strategies, conducted the NBC News poll along with Democratic firm Hart Research Associates — said that left-leaning voters' greater interest in another candidate shows why there has been concern among Democratics about No Labels, a bipartisan political organization that is spending millions of dollars to get ballot access for a potential unity ticket in 2024.
"From the Republican Party's perspective, this is the low watermark for considering a third party, and it's a high watermark for Democrats," McInturff told NBC News, mentioning a candidate who has not ruled out a bid under the No Labels banner: Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va.
"I don't think Manchin would be the typical third-party candidate for a disaffected Democrat," he said, "but it still tells you why they are very, very jumpy about a third party in this race."
Majorities of a handful of Democratic-leaning groups are more open to another option if Biden and Trump win their nominations: Hispanic voters (58%); voters ages 18 to 34 (57%); Democrats who backed progressive Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont in the 2020 Democratic primary (55%); and Black voters (52%).