Pelosi said Biden’s pick for running mate likely won’t change the presidential race despite fevered expectation in Washington as politics watchers await his decision.
In an interview on MSNBC, the California Democrat said that there’s not much evidence that the vice presidential selection matters.
“I don’t think it matters who the vice presidential candidate is historically,” she said. “It has never mattered. Lyndon Johnson for victory, Sarah Palin for defeat, but by and large it’s really all about the two candidates for president.”
Political scientists are split on the question. Some argue that certain picks, like a long-serving elected official, can make a marginal difference in their home state, while others say there’s no evidence that the vice presidential pick affects the outcome at all.
One exception: A 2010 study from Stanford University found that Palin may have cost 2008 Republican nominee John McCain as many as 2.1 million votes.