Former President Donald Trump has a 10-point lead over his lone challenger Nikki Haley and looks well-positioned to win the New Hampshire GOP primary, according to a new poll.
Following Trump's landslide win in last week's Iowa caucuses, the Republican nomination could effectively be decided if the former president wins big in the Granite State's primary on Tuesday.
According to the Daily Mail survey, 51% of registered voters in the state support Trump, while 41% support Haley.
James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners which conducted the poll, said the most favorable state for Haley, in terms of voter demographics, is New Hampshire.
"If she cannot win here then she has no chance of winning overall, and is heading to a landslide defeat in South Carolina," Johnson said, referring to the next nominating contest and Haley's home state. "If Trump wins on Tuesday, even by single digits, the Trump train has left the station — and Nikki Haley is on the platform."
New Hampshire's primary system allows undeclared voters to participate in whichever primary they choose.
According to the survey, Haley is leading Trump among undeclared voters; Trump's hold on the GOP base outstrips that lead, however.
Among undeclared voters, 59% support Haley, compared to 34% who say they support Trump. Among Republicans, though, Trump garners 62% support, versus Haley's 30%.
The poll also revealed a yawning enthusiasm gap between the two candidates' backers.
A full 82% of Trump supporters reported feeling "very enthusiastic" about voting for him, while only 44% of Haley supporters said the same.
Johnson told the Mail that the problem for Haley lies in her dependence on the support of undeclared voters.
"Our modelling — based on a pre-fieldwork survey of New Hampshire voters — suggests we will see more Republicans turn out on the day, by 62% to 38%," he said. "It is that which is propelling Trump to a lead."
On Sunday, Haley campaign manager Betsy Ankeny told reporters that there will likely be more undeclared voters casting ballots in the Republican primary because the Democrat primary is not competitive this election cycle.
"And we have focused on them from the beginning, in terms of the universities that we're talking to ... we are not only talking to Republicans, we are talking to undeclareds," Ankeny said, according to the Mail.
In the final days of campaigning before the New Hampshire primary, Haley has increased her attacks on Trump, questioning his mental fitness and drawing contrasts between herself and the former president.
"Chaos follows him," she told CBS Sunday. "He's just not at the same level he was in 2016."
The poll was conducted Jan. 17-21 and surveyed 651 registered New Hampshire Republicans and undeclared voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.