The U.S. had intelligence weeks ago a Russian mercenary uprising was coming under Yevgeniy Prigozhin's Wagner Group and started preparations for potential scenarios, including the fear Russia's nuclear arsenal would be at risk.
The intelligence stemmed from the June 10 Russian Defense Ministry order seeking to have all volunteer fighters sign contracts with the Russian military, a sure sign Prigozhin's mercenaries were going to have a new boss, The Washington Post reported.
"There were enough signals to be able to tell the leadership," a U.S. official told the Post, "that something was up.
"So I think they were ready for it."
Putin also was aware of the potential coming uprising before it began late this week.
U.S. intelligence has "high concern" a potential "civil war" and a threat to Vladimir Putin would potentially destabilize the control of Russia's vast nuclear arsenal.
"There were lots of questions along those lines," the official told the Post.
Congress has reportedly been briefed on that intelligence, too, making this weekend's march of an armed uprising to within 120 miles of Moscow not that much of a surprise, save for how close it got.
Ukrainian intelligence picked up signals Prigozhin's disenchantment with the June 10 contracting order for his troops and was planning the march back into Russia.
While Prigozhin is being given harbor in Belarus, there remains an army of his forces in Africa providing security for government regimes, according to the Post.
"Tensions between the Wagner Group and the Russian Ministry of Defense are no secret," a senior Biden administration official told the Post. "We have all seen Mr. Prigozhin publicly criticize, warn, and even threaten the Russian military on any number of occasions."
Putin permitting Prigozhin's forces to march within 120 miles of Moscow is precarious, but clearly if he intended to preserve the mercenaries to sign on to the Russian force he could not risk a bloody battle.
"Having an armed group make it to within miles of Moscow is pretty serious," one source told the Post.
There was coordination in the high levels of the Russian government, officials believe, according to the Post.
"If Prigozhin intended to drive a wedge between the command of Russian Federation Armed Forces and the Kremlin he failed," another source told the Post.
Related Stories: