Sen. Elizabeth Warren's numbers are the most improved of all Democratic candidates, as shown in a Monmouth University poll earlier this week placing her as part of a three-way tie with former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, but it's important not to reach conclusions because of a single poll, according to Sabato's Crystal Ball.
The Monmouth poll put the three leaders at 20% support each, but Wednesday morning polls from Quinnipiac University and USA Today/Suffolk University put Biden back on top again with a little more than 30% of the vote.
Biden's numbers have remained mostly the same all year, but according to polling averages, Warren's star is on the rise, climbing from 4% at the beginning of the year to 16% now, reported the publication, citing RealClearPolitics' national polling average.
"If the RealClearPolitics average were a real poll with a margin of error — it isn’t, but bear with us for the overall point — we might characterize much of the change for many of the candidates from the start of the year to the end of August as being statistically insignificant," Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik writes. "But Warren’s rise, from 4% to 16%, is the kind of change that any half-decent poll would suggest is statistically significant."
The numbers show that candidates like Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and former Rep. Beto O'Rourke all remain in the single digits, with only Biden, Sanders, and Warren averaging double-digit numbers.