Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris is favored to win November’s election over Republican Donald Trump for the first time since Aug. 28, according to election forecaster Nate Silver’s latest modeling.
Harris leads Trump 48.9% to 46.1%, according to Silver’s latest polling average updated Friday. Harris is buoyed by leading five of the key battleground states, including Pennsylvania.
"Today marks the 3rd time so far in the election that the streams have crossed in the forecast — Harris is technically the favorite in the model for the first time since Aug. 28 — but the race is a toss-up and that will happen a lot when the forecast is so close to 50/50," Silver wrote on his Silver Bulletin site.
In addition to Pennsylvania, Harris is leading Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Minnesota, according to Silver’s forecast. Trump leads North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
Silver’s erstwhile forecast platform, FiveThirtyEight.com, now owned by Disney, gave Harris a 61% chance of winning earlier this week. The RealClearPolitics polling average Harris with a 1.9-point lead over Trump.
"Needless to say, stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning. And in America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close and a candidate is rarely out of the running," Silver wrote Friday.