U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, who has tied herself tightly to President Donald Trump as she aims to succeed one of his most vocal Republican critics in the U.S. Senate, has a modest lead in her election bid, a Reuters opinion poll found.
A Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics Poll released on Wednesday showed 47 percent of likely voters supporting Blackburn and 44 percent backing her Democratic rival, former Governor Phil Bredesen, who has staked a centrist course and tried to appeal to Republicans and independents in a deeply conservative state.
Democrats view the race as one of their best opportunities to pick up one of the two additional seats they need to take a majority in the Senate, which they say would allow them to more effectively counter Trump’s agenda. They have a narrow path to a majority as they must also defend seats in the Nov. 6 election in 10 states that Trump won in 2016.
The 3 percentage-point spread is just outside the poll’s 2.5 percentage point credibility interval, a measure of precision. Other recent polls have shown Blackburn with a substantially wider lead.
“It’s become such a Republican state, it’s so difficult to for any Democrat to put together a majority statewide,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist who closely tracks political races, in a phone interview.
The seat’s current occupant, Republican Bob Corker, is a Trump critic who is retiring at the end of his term.
Bredesen supporters said they had expected the race to be close.