Chris Cillizza, author of The Washington Post's politics blog, has written a piece analyzing why he was wrong in his prediction that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio would never run against each other for president.
"In the long lead-up to the 2016 presidential campaign, I repeatedly wrote in this space, said on TV and tweeted that Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush wouldn't both run for the nation's highest office. That conclusion was based on the idea, explained to me by many Republicans in the know, that the duo were too close personally to ever go against one another in any sort of election,"
Cillizza wrote.
"That conclusion, as you undoubtedly know by now, was wrong."
Cillizza said he reached out to every Republican consultant he knew in Florida to try to find out whether his conclusion was ever right, and if so, what had changed.
"Hell if I know," Ana Navarro, a Bush supporter and Florida Republican strategist, told Cillizza. "There's no point to psychoanalyzing what could have been, should have been, may have been. We're at the bridge now and have to get to the other side."
Cillizza said there might be some uncertainty about the common understanding of the closeness of the two politicians, though one Rubio ally said the relationship was "typically overstated by the press."
"Marco got elected to the legislature on his own. In the Senate race against [Charlie] Crist, Jeb was not particularly impactful, despite reports to the contrary," the source told Cillizza. "Jeb's help came late in the process, after Marco had already taken off; and that was done more out of hatred for Crist than anything else. Marco respects and likes Jeb, but has never seen himself as indebted to him."
Cillizza said his error was in assuming that because Rubio and Bush were political allies and successful establishment Republicans from the same state, that meant they were close personal friends and therefore would never run against each other.
"As a reporter — or even a source or strategist — it's hard to know what's political and what's personal when it comes to politicians' relationships.
"Oftentimes, politicians find it in their best interests to give off the sense (or at least not disrupt the sense) that they are good friends with other politicians. That is, sometimes, true. Often, it's not. Or, it's true until their 'friend's' interests runs into their own. Then, friendship — even if it is genuine — tends to take a back seat to political ambition."
He said the allure of running for president might be just too strong to sit out a chance.
"Regardless of the reasons, I got it wrong. I'll do better next time," Cillizza said.