Democrat Mark Udall, fighting hard in the last days of the Colorado Senate race, is seeking a comeback on par with the epic one staged in 2010 by Michael Bennet, who was behind in every poll and then managed with a massive and directed get-out-the-vote effort, to pull out a victory in the race's final days,
the New York Times reported.
Thus far, Udall's Republican opponent, Cory Gardner, has an 83 percent chance of victory, according to a Times analysis of the much-watched race, which remains in the toss-up category, according to Real Clear Politics, where a
polling average has Gardner up by 3.2 points.
With voter data information now widely available for early review, it is now easier to chart who has voted and the demographic mix that could hold Udall's political future in its hands as he relies on specific turnout from the right set of voters who could flip the now-lopsided race in his favor.
A Times analysis of early voting shows Gardner already enjoying strong support. Of those 650,000 who had cast early voting ballots — this year marks the first for Colorado's mail-in ballot initiative — Republican voters had outpaced Democrats 42.8 to 32.3 percent.
If those percentages continue to track, Gardner looks like a sure shot come Election Day, the Times noted. Those early ballots, however, had been cast by over-65 voters who are from largely GOP jurisdictions, noted the Times, making the turnout thus far disproportionate in terms of calling the race in a Republican's favor.
One hope, the Times noted, is in the 2010 race, 21 percent of Democrats did not turn out to vote. With them back in the mix in 2014, however, turnout could swell by 450,000 voters, and most are likely younger Democrats who could help Udall step up his game.
Noted the Times' Nate Cohn in his The Upshot column: "There’s not much question that Democrats will gain as the remaining young voters from Democratic jurisdictions mail in their ballots. The question is how much, and whether it will be enough."
One set of voters energized by Udall are
Latino voters, according to the Latin Post. Their turnout could also give the Democrat a boost in the race's final days.
"To seal up the potential crack in the Democratic firewall for the U.S. Senate, Udall needs a big ground game," Lee M. Miringoff, who directs the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, told the Post. "He trails among those who have already voted by 12 points."
An
NBC/Marist poll released Monday showed the race a statistical dead heat with Gardner up by one point.
Udall, however, has failed to connect with Colorado's female voters,
according to Time magazine, which noted he is behind in two polls with that voter bloc. Time pointed to a set of ads about abortion rights and women's healthcare that Republicans have argued are dishonest and have cost Udall the endorsement of the state's largest paper, the Denver Post.
The Post used harsh language in explaining why it was supporting Gardner's Senate bid.
“Rather than run on his record, Udall’s campaign has devoted a shocking amount of energy and money trying to convince voters that Gardner seeks to outlaw birth control despite the congressman’s call for over-the-counter sales of contraceptives,” the Post wrote. “Udall is trying to frighten voters rather than inspire them with a hopeful vision. His obnoxious one-issue campaign is an insult to those he seeks to convince.”