A difficult Senate map in 2024 was already shaping up for Democrats, and now Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., is retiring. She might only be the first.
"Senate Democrats don't even have a campaign chair yet and they are already dealing with a major retirement," National Republican Senatorial Committee Communications Director Mike Berg told The Hill. "We are going to aggressively target this seat in 2024. This could be the first of many Senate Democrats who decide to retire rather than lose."
Michigan is not the election bellwether state of nearby Ohio, but it is a battleground. Former President Donald Trump flipped the state in 2016 by just 10,000 votes, while the 2020 pandemic-induced mail-in voting gave the state back to Democrats by 2 points in 2020.
Now-Rep. John James, R-Mich., lost close races to Stabenow in 2018 and Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., in 2020 (less than 2 points).
"The Dems on the Senate side have always been better positioned than we have, and now I don't know if you can say that," a Michigan Republican strategist told The Hill. "They've got strong candidates, but we've got strong candidates too.
"Whoever is running will not be Sen. Stabenow with the terrific record that she had with the hard work that she has done on behalf of this state."
The early retirement has put some extra Republican focus on a battle in the state, which will be another "tough race," according to the strategist.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., and Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., are considering running for the seat, while the Democrat state leaders Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, Attorney General Dana Nessel, and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson could all be candidates.
"Anybody who has watched Michigan over the past couple of years knows that we have a deep, deep bench of highly qualified folks," Michigan Democratic Chair Lavora Barnes told The Hill.
The fact the state-wide offices are controlled by Democrats make it a tough state for Republicans.
"In 2022, Michigan Democrats won resounding statewide victories, and we are confident Democrats will hold this Senate seat in 2024," Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman David Bergstein told The Hill.
Republicans have not won a Senate seat in Michigan since 1994: former Sen. Spencer Abraham, R-Mich., but he was the first Republican to win a Senate seat since 1972 and just a one-term senator, losing to Stabenow in 2000.
Despite that dominance, Michigan-based Democratic strategist Adrian Hemond told The Hill, that "Michigan is a purple state."
"Democrats have a great shot at this, especially if they nominate the right candidate," Hemond added.
James lost two close Senate races, so expect him to be a candidate again after his term in the House, which began this week. Rep. Lisa McClain, R-Mich., is another with localized election strength.
Former Reps. Peter Meijer, R-Mich., and Fred Upton, R-Mich., might try to run again, but they would be doing so without MAGA support, having voted to impeach former President Donald Trump. Upton did not run again in 2022, and Meijer was beaten in a primary by Trump-backed John Gibbs, who lost in November.
Former gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon, who lost to Whitmer in November, would be likely to have Trump's backing if James did not run.