Hillary Clinton is a heavy favorite in the presidential race, according to FiveThirtyEight.com's 2016 election forecast Tuesday, projecting the Democratic nominee as an 83.5 percent favorite to win over Republican nominee Donald Trump (16.5 percent).
FiveThirtyEight predicts Clinton would win the electoral vote by a wide margin—thanks to being a favorite in the northeast and California—while Trump only narrowed the margin in the popular vote by being favored throughout the heartland of America.
FiveThirtyEight’s electoral vote prediction states:
- Hillary Clinton will win 338.9 electoral votes.
- Donald Trump will get 198.8 electoral votes.
- Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson will get 0.4 votes.
FiveThirtyEight’s popular vote prediction states:
- Hillary Clinton will win 48.2 percent of the popular vote.
- Donald Trump will win 42.6 percent of the popular vote.
- Gary Johnson will win 7.9 percent of the popular vote.
The FiveThirtyEight website tracks statistics, poll data and other information to provide the predictions.
A forecast based only on poll data still forecasts Clinton to win, but at a smaller margin: 66 percent to Trump's 34 percent.
A third analysis by FiveThirtyEight includes polls, economic indicators, and historical data. Clinton has a slightly higher edge there at 69 percent.
The site breaks down predictions by states. Some states are predicted to heavily in Clinton's favor, such as California at 99.8 percent and New York (99.7 percent). Trump is the heavy favorite in states such as Oklahoma (99.8 percent) and Idaho (99 percent).
The odds, according to FiveThirtyEight, show an upswing for Clinton recently from around 50 percent to its 83.5 percent level. Trump is sliding from around 50 percent to his present 16.5 percent.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s predictions, the race between Clinton and Trump was closest Monday, July 25, at the start of the Democratic National Convention. If the election had been held that day, Clinton was just a 53.8 percent favorite to win compared to Trump's 46.2 percent.
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver reported on the results, saying Clinton’s smallest lead in any poll since the Democratic National Convention is 5 percent. Silver pointed out numbers vary wildly in the "now-cast," as he calls the numbers based on if the election were held today.
"Be wary of getting attached," he said.