The lasting effect of Donald Trump's post-convention ratings bounce won't be fully known until after Labor Day, conservative analyst Karl Rove said Tuesday.
Appearing on Fox News Channel's
"The O'Reilly Factor," Rove said the Real Clear Politics average of polls show
Trump's bounce after being crowned the GOP presidential nominee last week to be about 4 points over rival Hillary Clinton, who won the Democratic nomination on Tuesday.
Trump gained about 5 points on average, while Clinton is up 1 point.
That number is slightly below the Republican average since 1964, but beats Mitt Romney four years ago, who got no post-convention bounce at all.
Typically, convention bounces come from people who aren't normally interested in politics paying attention for a while, then going back to not caring as much, Rove said.
Trump could conceivably capture some of Clinton's Democratic rival Bernie Sanders' supporters, even though many of his supporters are socialist like Sanders himself, Rove said. That's because some of Sanders' support — like Trump's — is personality-driven.
"You have got a lot of independents, particularly in states with open primaries, who are not that glued in to politics, are drawn by personalities, and might have been excited by Bernie and not really hepped up on Hillary Clinton," Rove said.
Debates will have a strong impact this year, he said, since this election has the highest number of undecideds since 1992.