The foreign-policy crisis created by the threat from the Islamic State (ISIS) group in the Middle East could help Republicans wrest control of the Senate in November, according to GOP strategist Karl Rove.
But it's just one of a number of factors that will determine close midterm contests, the former deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush writes in an opinion piece for
The Wall Street Journal posted Wednesday night.
"A foreign-policy crisis normally boosts the party in power. Not this time," he writes.
"Obama's abysmal approval numbers are likely to improve only a little. The GOP's advantage as the party better able to handle national security has been building for more than a year…."
The economy still tops voters' priorities, he notes.
"That's why Mr. Obama awkwardly tacked onto his Sept. 10 prime-time address on the Islamic State several paragraphs heralding America's economic health," he writes. "The Democratic Party's problem is that voters don't believe the president's claims that the economy is thriving."
Rove writes the path to victory in November for Republicans is clear.
"Republican candidates must show they are in touch with voter concerns about growth, jobs, paychecks, government spending and debt," he writes, adding; "The only way to do this is by offering specific, persuasive ideas."
GOP successes at the polls, Rove argues, will depend "on how strong an impression voters have of what Republicans will do if they run the Senate."
"It is not enough for Republicans to remind them of Mr. Obama's many failings; voters want to know how the GOP would move the country forward," he says.
"Republicans must keep three plates spinning at once: encouraging voters to send Mr. Obama a message, defending themselves against brutal Democratic attacks, and laying out a governing vision."
Other factors that could affect the elections' outcome include get-out-the-vote efforts, and absentee and early voting in some states.
"The impact of any factor may be small in any given race," Rove writes.
"But in tight contests, they can be decisive. Control of the Senate and the direction of President Obama's last two years in office may depend on it."