Republicans have a clear shot at claiming a majority in the upper chamber, GOP strategist Karl Rove predicted.
In a commentary for The Wall Street Journal posted Thursday, the former White House deputy chief of staff in the George W. Bush administration said: “If GOP challengers achieve financial sufficiency and turn Democrat officeholders’ records into a negative, Republicans could win a Senate majority that lasts a decade.”
The swing seems already assured in Maryland, where ex-Gov. Larry Hogan has a double-digit lead over both Democrats vying for their party’s nomination in “a deep-blue state," he pointed out.
“Voters see him as independent and authentic, giving him a great shot to become the first Maryland Republican elected to the Senate since 1980,” Rove wrote.
Senate Democrats currently claim a 51-49 majority, with 23 Democratic Senate seats up for grabs — including those of independents Bernie Sanders and Angus King.
“With Republicans defending only 11 seats, Democrats have no room for error,” Rove wrote.
Breaking it down, Rove noted most GOP seats up this year are in deep-red states — and only two Republicans — Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida — face competition, with both currently polling ahead in their races.
“Democrats, on the other hand, have lots of problems,” Rove wrote.
The veteran strategist noted GOP Gov. Jim Justice “is virtually guaranteed to take the West Virginia seat of retiring Sen. Joe Manchin” and that Dems have two vulnerable seats in Montana and Ohio — states Donald Trump won in 2016 and 2020.
Should the GOP flip those states, Republicans could dominate a 52-48 Senate, he wrote.
Republicans also have “have reasonable chances” to add seats in three Great Lakes states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Rove predicted, warning however: “Since all three states are presidential battlegrounds, they’ll be close.”
Rove also maintained the GOP has “western opportunities,” including in Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico.