There are zero good options for Republicans to replace Roy Moore in Alabama, but the best of the bad alternatives would be to push a write-in candidate next month, Nate Silver writes in FiveThirtyEight.com.
Silver says there are three other results that are worse than the write-in option:
- Democrat Doug Jones defeating Moore.
- Moore wins, remains in the Senate.
- Moore wins, expelled by the Senate.
The first outcome is obvious, but the last two are fraught with peril and far more nuanced, Silver writes.
"Let’s not neglect the much greater consequence, which is that Republicans — if they didn’t expel Moore — would be seen as aiding and abetting, or at least tolerating, someone who has credibly been accused of being a serial child molester," Silver writes.
That could have serious consequences for next year's midterms; Democrats would pummel Republicans with that at every turn.
But expelling Moore isn't easy either. Silver says Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell might not have the votes or the support of President Donald Trump to do it.
Further, even if the Senate moves to expel Moore — only after months of contentious hearings — Moore could turn around and win again in 2021, when the original term of Attorney General Jeff Sessions expires.
So, that leaves a write-in candidate — interim Sen. Luther Strange, already trounced by Moore in the special primary over the summer.
"There’s an argument that all of the other outcomes are so bad that Republicans might as well try their luck with a write-in campaign," Silver writes.
Or, Republicans just weather the storm, much like they did one year ago.
"As was the case with Trump, Republicans may decide that the only thing worse than living with Roy Moore is living without him," Silver concludes.