The public might not realize it, but the presidential race is neither a Donald Trump surge nor a Hillary Clinton free fall, veteran pollster John Zogby contends.
Despite the oversaturated and distorted media coverage of the campaign, which gives an inaccurate impression of wild swings for one candidate or the other, Zogby said this race has actually been run within a relatively narrow band, especially when considering the third-party candidates.
And Zogby insists the campaign must be evaluated as a four-person race, because Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein will continue to be crucial factors in figuring out who will win the election.
For several months now in the four-person race, Clinton has been polling within a range of 38 percent to 46 percent, while Trump has been pulling in very similar 35 percent to 45 percent numbers. The consistency in these figures illustrates this will be a very close and competitive competition until election day, just as in the past four presidential elections, Zogby said.
The closeness of the race is shown not just by the consistency of the polling numbers, but the levels of support for each candidate have been rather low. This means both of the two major candidates are disliked at historically high percentages, which makes it difficult for either to pick up large swaths of support.
Such a narrow range means a mere 2-percent swing one way or the other can put the other candidate in the lead and give the impression, with a boost from a sensationalist press, of a massive shift in public opinion, especially when one has to also factor in the margin of error.
Zogby contends the same principle applies to the battles in most of the key battleground states – such as Florida and Ohio – namely, the polls have shown a strong consistency. Even when one candidate overtakes the other, both nominees have actually stayed within their narrow range of support.