With just six weeks left until the Iowa Caucuses open in February, Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz remain in a virtual tie for the GOP nomination, but Trump trails both Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders when it comes to general election matchups, according a
new Quinnipiac University Poll.
Among Republican or Republican-leaning voters:
- Trump: 28 percent;
- Cruz, 24 percent;
- Sen. Marco Rubio, 12 percent;
- Ben Carson, 10 percent;
- Gov. Chris Christie, 6 percent;
- Jeb Bush, 4 percent;
- Sen. Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, 2 percent each;
- Gov. John Kasich, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee 1 percent each.
The latest poll shows a five-point drop for Rubio since Quinnipiac's November poll. Carson is six points down from November. However, Christie's numbers are up, and the the remainder are at about the same levels.
Of all the candidates, Carson has been falling the furthest. In October, Carson was leading the Quinnipiac survey at 28 percent, followed by Trump at 20 percent, Rubio at 13 percent, and Cruz nabbed 10 percent. Bush's numbers have remained virtually the same, as he had 5 percent in the October poll.
Trump's four-point lead over Cruz in the current poll falls within the margin of error of 4.4 percentage points among Republicans and 2.9 percentage points overall. However, 58 percent of the voters who named a candidate said they may change their mind, the poll showed.
A combination of the nation's polls, though, shows Trump with a commanding lead of 34 percent to Rubio's 18 percent, according to
Real Clear Politics.
In the new Quinnipiac poll, Clinton maintained her commanding lead over Sanders, by 61-30 percent, and Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley netted 2 percent. Six percent were undecided and 41 percent said they may change their minds.
Further, the top Republican candidates all fall behind Clinton and Sanders in potential general election matchups:
- Voters back Clinton over Trump 47 – 40 percent;
- Clinton over Rubio, 44-43 percent;
- Clinton tied with Cruz, 44-44 percent.
- Sanders over Trump, 51-38 percent;
- Rubio over Sanders, 45-42 percent;
- Cruz over Sanders, 44-43 percent.
Voters also said, by 59-32 percent, including 86-10 percent among Democrats, that Clinton would defeat the eventual Republican nominee next November. Overall, voters said by 53-41 percent that Trump does not have a good chance of winning in November, but Republicans, by 70-24 percent said he has a good chance of winning.
The poll was conducted from Dec. 16-20 of 1,140 registered voters nationwide and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
It included 508 Republicans, with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, and 462 Democrats, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
Cruz is showing strong support among different voting groups over Trump:
- Tea Party: Cruz, 38-27;
- White, Evangelical Christians, 33-22 percent;
- Very conservative supporters: 33-22 percent;
Trump was over Cruz among men, by 30 percent to 29 percent, and among people with a college degree, by 24-21 percent.
Also, 40 percent of the Republican voters who watched the Dec. 15 debate said they believed Cruz won the contest, compared to 20 percent for Trump.
With Republicans, 28 percent said they definitely would not support Trump, and 24 percent said they would not back Bush.
In addition, 23 percent would be proud to have Trump as the president of the United States, with half saying they'd be embarrassed, and 33 percent said they'd be proud of Clinton and 35 percent embarrassed.
In other matchups:
- Voters back Clinton over Trump 47 – 40 percent;
- Clinton over Rubio, 44-43 percent;
- Clinton tied with Cruz, 44-44 percent.
- Sanders over Trump, 51-38 percent;
- Rubio over Sanders, 45-42 percent;
- Cruz over Sanders, 44-43 percent.
In favorability ratings:
- Clinton, 43-51 percent;
- Sanders, 40 – 31 percent;
- Rubio, 37 – 28 percent;
- Cruz, 35 – 33 percent.
Meanwhile, Clinton and Trump remain close on several key qualities, except for experience. Voters said, by 63-35 percent, that Clinton has the right kind of experience to be president, while, by 67-29 percent, they said Trump does not have the experience needed.
In other numbers:
- 59 – 35 percent said that Clinton is not honest and trustworthy;
- 58 – 40 percent that she has strong leadership qualities;
- 50 – 46 percent that she does not care about their needs and problems;
- 55 – 42 percent that she does not share their values.
With Trump; voters say:
- 58 – 36 percent that he is not honest and trustworthy;
- 58 – 39 percent that he has strong leadership qualities;
- 57 – 38 percent that he does not care about their needs and problems;
- 61 – 34 percent that he does not share their values.