The coronavirus pandemic has been a boon for Joe Biden, as he has taken a close race from two months ago and turned it into a 10-point edge nationally in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll.
Biden leads Trump 53% to 43% among registered voters nationally now, after a virtual dead heat when Biden's 49%-47% lead was within the margin of error.
Polling registered voters has often been criticized by analysts as less predictive than likely voters, and Biden's lead is wider among all adults in the poll 53% to 40%.
Trump does lead Biden in a vital component of the electorate: a motivated base.
- 84% of Trump supporters will definitely vote for Trump.
- Just 68% of Biden supporters will definitely vote for Biden.
- 87% of Trump backers are enthusiastic in their support, including 64% "very enthusiastic.
- Just 84% of Biden backers are enthusiastic, with a mere 31% "very enthusiastic."
Motivated voters are more likely to vote, pollsters maintain. Biden's lead shrinks to 5 points 51%-46% among those certain to vote, per the poll.
It is also tight in a subset of the poll among the battleground states, per the Post.
"Trump has the edge among voters in the South while Biden leads in the Northeast and the West," the Post wrote. "A subsample in the new poll that includes registered voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Iowa shows a tight contest across those states, with Biden at 51% and Trump at 46%."
The movement in the poll might be tied to Trump's approval ratings from the poll. Two months ago, Trump was plus-2 points on approval for the first time 48%-46%. That has since gone back negative in the poll: 53% disapprove to 45% approve.
The Post/ABC poll was conducted May 25-28 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There were 835 registered voters polled with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.