Jeb Bush’s endorsement of Ted Cruz on Wednesday is a major turning point in this campaign.
Long considered the total outsider, Bush’s embrace of outsider Cruz now unites both the establishment and conservative wings of the Republican Party behind him.
The bottom line now is very clear: the establishment wing of the party sees no chance of John Kasich winning and knows that only a two-man race will allow voters to find a candidate the GOP can unite behind.
Jeb Bush’s strong endorsement of Cruz is really the GOP conservative and establishment wings politely asking the Ohio governor to end his presidential bid.
He needs to listen to that request and act on it.
Though Jeb did not do well in the primary, he remains highly respected among conservatives, party leaders and among party donors. He did a remarkable job as Florida’s governor, with one of the most conservative track records of any governor in modern times.
Likewise, John Kasich has done a great job in Ohio. He is a good man and would make a good president.
But Jeb withdrew from the race, and Kasich has no chance of winning the presidency this year.
The mathematics show that he cannot win enough delegates to win on the first ballot – requiring more than 110 percent of the remaining delegates to win – a statistical impossibility.
Why, then, is he staying in the race? Some think he's in the race to deny Trump the nomination on the first ballot.
If that were to happen, the theory goes, Kasich could emerge in later ballots as the nominee in a “brokered” convention.
Nice thought. But it would be delusional and dangerous for the party bosses to deny Trump the nomination if he falls just a few votes short of the magic 1,237 votes.
There needs to be a clear race here to the finish line with a majority winner at the end.
Trump himself has said that he would like the race to be a two-man race, between himself and Cruz.
This primary has been the most divisive that anyone can remember. The party is fractured and should have a majority winner on the first ballot to unite the party.
Only Donald Trump or Ted Cruz have a mathematical chance of winning the nomination. The party needs to unite behind one of them.
Bush’s endorsement today is an implicit signal from him that the party needs to make such a choice.
Some think Kasich is remaining in the race to divide the anti-Trump vote and give Trump the nomination. Trump, in turn, might coronate him with the vice-presidential nomination.
I am not that cynical to believe this scenario.
It would also be political suicide for Trump to pick Kasich. The Ohio governor is already viewed as a moderate Republican out of step with the party’s conservative base.
Trump himself has his own problems with the base. Exit polls show that in almost every primary and caucus he has lost to Cruz among voters who identify as “very conservative.”
Trump is a pragmatist and not a traditional conservative. Add Kasich to the ticket and the Reagan base of the party stays home.
I think Kasich is remaining in the race because campaigns have an inertia all of their own, especially when they are raising lots of money.
For most of the primary season, Kasich was starved of media attention and cash. Now both are being showered on him and his staff 24/7. It’s hard to give that up.
This election is extremely critical because, if a Democrat wins, they will likely have 16 years of uninterrupted appointments to the federal judiciary. In the wake of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia’s death, the next president will decide the shape of the Supreme Court for a long time.
So, it is time for John Kasich to step down and let Republican voters decide between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, and unite behind a clear winner.
The public needs a conservative choice on the ballot in November, otherwise we risk losing not only the White House, but the federal courts for a generation or more.