The Mount Everest region may lose more than 70 percent of its glacier volume in upcoming decades if global greenhouse-gas emissions continue to rise, a team of international researchers reported Wednesday.
The entire Everest area in the Himalayas is projected to sustain “continued and possibly accelerated mass loss from glaciers,”
a press release from the European Geosciences Union reported.
Joseph Shea, a leader of the study done by researchers in Nepal, France, and the
Netherlands which was published in The Cryosphere, said a glacier model indicated 70 to 99 percent of glacier volume could be lost by 2100.
“Our results indicate that these glaciers may be highly sensitive to changes in temperature, and that increases in precipitation are not enough to offset the increased melt,” Shea said in the release.
“Our estimates need to be taken very cautiously, as considerable uncertainties remain,” added Patrick Wagnon, a scientist in Grenoble, France.
But even with some unknowns or simplifications in the model, such as not accounting for glacier movement, the study said “the signal of future glacier change in the region is clear and compelling” and that ice decreases in thickness and extent are expected for “even the most conservative climate change scenario.”
In a blog post, Shea took on the implications of the study for the area.
“The loss of glaciers in the Everest region would be a pretty big deal,” he wrote. “The monsoon is the main driver of streamflows in the region, but in the mountains glacier melt can be an important contributor. These glaciers are also culturally and historically significant, and draw huge numbers of tourists and mountaineers every year.”
While climate change and the impact of greenhouse-gas emissions are controversial, this study worried many online:
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