A tropical storm could be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico just in time for the Memorial Day weekend, NOAA forecasters said on Tuesday, and the system that's spawning it will send drenching rain to Florida and the southeast.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center issued a special tropical weather outlook for the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, possibly leading to the first named storm of the season, despite hurricane season not officially starting until June 1.
"A broad surface low centered just east of Belize is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and into the Florida peninsula," Tuesday's NOAA weather outlook stated. "Little development is expected during the next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and proximity to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.”
"However, gradual subtropical or tropical development is possible late this week while the system moves slowly into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and much of Florida during the next several days," the statement said, giving the chance of a storm formation over the next five days at 50 percent.
AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said sea-surface temperatures were hot enough to support a chance for tropical storm development, but that the chances of an organized system forming are still low.
"We have been monitoring an area of rain and thunderstorms the past few days that extends from the western Caribbean into Florida and the southeastern U.S.," Kottlowski said on the AccuWeather website.
"Our outlook calls for a small chance for tropical development later this week or during the upcoming weekend," he added.
USA Today reported that if the slow-moving disturbance reached tropical storm stage, it will be called Alberto.
The storm and its potential rain totals have already caught the attention of Florida Gov. Rick Scott, who issued a statement on Tuesday.
"As we continue to monitor the developing weather system in the Caribbean Sea, we know that families can never be too careful or over-prepared when it comes to severe weather," Scott said. "Although the storm currently has a relatively low chance of development into a tropical system, we must take it seriously.”