When the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) set its sights on California Democrat Dave Min, who is running for Rep. Katie Porter's seat this year, he reached out to former Michigan congressman Andy Levin for guidance.
Levin, who lost his House seat in 2022, was one of the small number of progressive Democrats targeted by the nation's leading pro-Israel group last election cycle over their criticism of Israel as its military operation in Gaza continues. The group reportedly spent $4 million against Levin to oust him.
The group unleashed a volley of attack ads.
The former lawmaker told Politico he advised Min to do what he had done and reach out to progressive Jewish groups for assistance. Min has not called for a permanent cease-fire, but has reportedly privately criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Outside spending "simply swamped" Levin's primary and he said Min's bid might end similarly.
"Most" candidates cannot survive spending at those levels, Levin said, adding "they can be quite successful in wiping them out."
In 2024, AIPAC is expected to wield $100 million against candidates the group feels are not sufficiently supportive of Israel, according to three people with knowledge of the matter who spoke with Politico on condition of anonymity.
The organization's biggest targets are reportedly members of the "Squad" of progressive House Democrats who have been pressuring the Biden administration to broker a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war. AIPAC reportedly plans to cast its net much wider, however. The group's super PAC, United Democracy Project, is tracking 15-20 House races, as well as polling in many of those districts, according to one of Politico's sources.
"They'll have so much money, wherever there's an opportunity, they will take it," one Democrat donor adviser who is involved in the effort told Politico.
In the aftermath of Hamas' Oct. 7 terror attack on Israel and the Jewish state's retaliatory offensive in Gaza, deep fractures have emerged within the Democratic Party which will have an impact on House Democrat primaries in districts nationwide.
The fallout has also dramatically boosted fundraising on both sides of the issue. In the final three months of 2023, Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., Congress' only Palestinian-American lawmaker, raked in $3.7 million — her biggest-ever single quarter fundraising haul.
Meanwhile, United Democracy Project ended 2023 with nearly $41 million, which is almost double the super PAC's entire spending program two years ago.
The progressive pro-Israel group J Street is rethinking its primary strategy this election cycle. According to Politico, the group, which defended candidates against AIPAC attacks in the primaries in 2022, will not be doing so this year.
J Street President Jeremy Ben-Ami told the outlet it is "generally not a fruitful use of our resources to spend in intra-party feuds."
The group will instead focus its $10 million on general election campaigns.
Rep. Mark Pocan, D-Wis., an outspoken critic of AIPAC, told Politico that J Street's decision not to take on the group in the primaries is part of a wider realization among progressives that they will not be able to "match [AIPAC] dollar-for-dollar."
"Most people are extremely turned off by where that money comes from," Pocan said. "When you take money from Donald Trump donors, Nikki Haley donors, Ron DeSantis donors and then you put it to use in Democrat primaries, clearly, it's a disingenuous use of money."