President Donald Trump is surging down the stretch, closing Joe Biden's national lead to just 4.8 percentage points and the battleground margin to just 3 points and within the margin of error, according to the latest Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll.
Most notably, according to the poll, Trump has gained on Biden with 48% of the Hispanic vote and 13% of the Black vote; Trump had just 8% of the Black vote in 2016.
"Biden has a narrow 3-point edge in swing states, those six states decided by less than 2 points in 2016," the IBD/TIPP poll found, the New York Post reported.
The national daily tracking poll gave Trump a 1-point bump from Friday:
- Biden 49.5%.
- Trump 44.7%.
The 4.8-point lead is just outside the margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.
The midwestern "blue wall" that Trump broke in the 2016 presidential election gives Biden just a 2-point lead, which is within the margin of error.
Here is the regional breakdown:
- National: Biden 49.5%-46.3%.
- Midwest: Biden 48.4%-46.3%.
- Northeast: Biden 57.3%-34.6%.
- South: Trump 49%-45.6%.
- West: Biden 51%-43.5%.
Notably, the IBD/TIPP point had just a 1-point Hillary Clinton lead in the final weekend before the 2016 election, making a statistical tie and one of that election's most accurate pollsters.
"The IBD/TIPP poll goes where the data directs it, which is why it has been so successful over time," Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica, told the Post. "Right now, data suggests a significant number of votes are still in play, and factors like COVID-19, economic stimulus and mail- in voting could have a real impact. This is a race to watch."
The IBD/TIPP poll surveyed 1,047 likely voters from Oct. 26-30 with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.
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